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Bundesliga

Referee: T Welz

Bayern Munich

S U S S T

2–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 59%

75%

43%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

75%

64%

Both score Ø 63%

57%

68%

Average goals

3,9

3,4

Scored

2,9

1,9

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,97 xG 1,50

62% Possession 38%

28 Shots 11

11 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Dortmund 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	21	5	2	+54	+49.5	68
2	Leverkusen	29	18	9	2	+29	+22.8	63
3	Ein Frankfurt	28	14	6	8	+13	+11.0	48
4	RB Leipzig	29	13	9	7	+10	-5.6	48
5	Mainz	29	13	7	9	+12	-1.7	46
6	Freiburg	29	13	6	10	-5	+0.4	45
7	M'gladbach	29	13	5	11	+3	-7.6	44
8	Augsburg	29	11	9	9	-7	-13.1	42
9	Dortmund	28	12	5	11	+9	+16.6	41
10	Stuttgart	28	11	7	10	+7	+7.8	40
11	Werder Bremen	28	11	6	11	-8	-0.5	39
12	Wolfsburg	29	10	8	11	+6	-0.9	38
13	Union Berlin	29	9	8	12	-12	-8.9	35
14	Hoffenheim	29	7	9	13	-16	-13.6	30
15	St Pauli	29	8	5	16	-10	-7.3	29
16	Heidenheim	28	6	4	18	-21	-9.8	22
17	Holstein Kiel	29	4	6	19	-30	-18.2	18
18	Bochum	29	4	6	19	-34	-21.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+32	+32.9	37
2	Leverkusen	15	9	4	2	+14	+15.2	31
3	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.7	28
4	Dortmund	14	8	3	3	+17	+14.4	27
5	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	3	3	+12	+13.6	27
6	Freiburg	14	8	2	4	+7	+2.0	26
7	Mainz	14	6	5	3	+6	+4.0	23
8	M'gladbach	15	7	2	6	+4	-0.4	23
9	Augsburg	14	6	4	4	+1	+1.8	22
10	Stuttgart	14	6	2	6	+6	+10.4	20
11	Union Berlin	14	5	5	4	+0	+1.7	20
12	Hoffenheim	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.3	17
13	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-6	+2.1	16
14	Wolfsburg	15	3	6	6	-2	+1.5	15
15	St Pauli	14	3	4	7	-6	+1.3	13
16	Bochum	15	3	3	9	-14	-4.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	3	2	10	-17	-8.2	11
18	Heidenheim	14	3	1	10	-13	-4.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	9	5	0	+15	+7.6	32
2	Bayern Munich	14	9	4	1	+22	+16.6	31
3	Wolfsburg	14	7	2	5	+8	-2.4	23
4	Mainz	15	7	2	6	+6	-5.7	23
5	Werder Bremen	14	7	2	5	-2	-2.5	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	3	5	+1	-2.7	21
7	M'gladbach	14	6	3	5	-1	-7.2	21
8	Stuttgart	14	5	5	4	+1	-2.7	20
9	RB Leipzig	15	5	5	5	-1	-8.3	20
10	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	-8	-14.9	20
11	Freiburg	15	5	4	6	-12	-1.5	19
12	St Pauli	15	5	1	9	-4	-8.5	16
13	Union Berlin	15	4	3	8	-12	-10.5	15
14	Dortmund	14	4	2	8	-8	+2.2	14
15	Hoffenheim	14	3	4	7	-10	-11.4	13
16	Heidenheim	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.6	12
17	Holstein Kiel	14	1	4	9	-13	-9.9	7
18	Bochum	14	1	3	10	-20	-16.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.