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Championship

Referee: Thomas Bramall

Stoke

S T U U U

1–0

Full-time

Wrexham

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Wrexham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,2

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

44%

22%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

33%

56%

Both score Ø 67%

44%

89%

Average goals

1,9

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,61 xG 0,59

56% Possession 44%

12 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 6. · Wrexham 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.3	20
2	Coventry	9	5	4	0	+20	+15.0	19
3	Millwall	10	5	2	3	-2	-0.4	17
4	Leicester	9	4	4	1	+5	-2.2	16
5	Preston	9	4	4	1	+4	-0.9	16
6	Stoke	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.2	15
7	QPR	10	4	3	3	-2	-1.2	15
8	West Brom	9	4	2	3	-1	+0.7	14
9	Ipswich	9	3	4	2	+6	+7.0	13
10	Bristol City	9	3	4	2	+5	+2.6	13
11	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+0	-2.4	13
12	Watford	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.9	12
13	Charlton	9	3	3	3	+0	-0.5	12
14	Portsmouth	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.9	12
15	Hull	9	3	3	3	-2	-5.5	12
16	Birmingham	9	3	3	3	-3	+2.6	12
17	Southampton	9	2	5	2	-1	+6.6	11
18	Wrexham	9	2	4	3	-1	-5.2	10
19	Oxford	10	2	3	5	-2	-0.0	9
20	Norwich	9	2	2	5	-3	-4.7	8
21	Derby	10	1	5	4	-5	-6.3	8
22	Blackburn	8	2	1	5	-4	+1.3	7
23	Sheffield Weds	9	1	3	5	-12	-8.8	6
24	Sheffield United	9	1	0	8	-13	-2.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.3	13
2	Ipswich	5	3	2	0	+8	+6.2	11
3	Preston	5	3	2	0	+4	-0.4	11
4	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.8	10
5	Hull	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
6	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+9	+7.1	8
7	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.6	8
8	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.6	8
9	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
10	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.2	7
11	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
12	Portsmouth	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.2	7
13	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	+1.1	6
14	Millwall	5	2	0	3	-5	-1.2	6
15	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.5	5
16	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
17	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.8	5
18	Oxford	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
19	Wrexham	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.5	3
20	Derby	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.2	3
21	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-4	-0.5	1
22	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-13	-6.6	1
23	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-4	+0.3	0
24	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	5	3	2	0	+11	+7.9	11
2	Millwall	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
3	West Brom	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.0	9
4	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+6	+1.8	8
5	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+3	-1.2	8
6	Leicester	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.8	8
7	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	-5.0	8
8	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.0	7
9	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-4.7	7
10	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.4	7
11	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.8	7
12	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.8	6
13	Southampton	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.1	6
14	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.1	5
15	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.5	5
16	Portsmouth	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
17	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.1	5
18	Charlton	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.7	5
19	Oxford	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.3	4
20	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.5	4
21	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-7	-1.9	3
22	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
23	Watford	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.1	2
24	Hull	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.