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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Dortmund

S U S S S

1–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 80%

80%

Points per game

2,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 20%

20%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,89 xG 1,09

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · RB Leipzig 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+12.1	15
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.3	13
3	RB Leipzig	5	4	0	1	+0	+1.9	12
4	FC Koln	6	3	1	2	+2	-1.4	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.3	9
6	Stuttgart	5	3	0	2	+1	+1.3	9
7	Leverkusen	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
8	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.0	7
9	St Pauli	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.9	7
10	Hoffenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.1	7
11	Union Berlin	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.9	7
12	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.6	5
13	Hamburg	5	1	2	2	-6	-4.7	5
14	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.0	4
15	Werder Bremen	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.4	4
16	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-4	-7.9	3
17	Heidenheim	5	1	0	4	-6	-4.3	3
18	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-7	-0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.8	6
3	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
4	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.4	4
6	St Pauli	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
7	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
8	Union Berlin	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.3	4
9	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
10	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
11	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
12	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.7	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.8	2
14	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
15	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.1	0
17	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0
18	Hoffenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
2	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.1	7
3	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
4	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.9	6
5	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
6	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	-4	-0.9	6
7	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
8	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
9	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.4	3
10	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.8	3
11	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
12	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.2	3
15	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.6	3
16	Hamburg	3	0	2	1	-5	-2.9	2
17	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.