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Taça de Portugal
1–3
Full-time
Nacional
S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rebordelo Nacional
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,3
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
3,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-2,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lusitano Évora 1911 2 2 0 0 +7 6
2 CD Olivais e Moscavide 2 2 0 0 +7 6
3 Caldas 2 2 0 0 +7 6
4 Vila Meã 2 2 0 0 +6 6
5 Espinho 2 2 0 0 +5 6
6 Vianense 2 2 0 0 +4 6
7 Comércio Indústria 2 2 0 0 +3 6
8 Vila Real 2 2 0 0 +3 6
9 Amarante 2 2 0 0 +3 6
10 CF Os Belenenses 2 2 0 0 +3 6
11 1º Dezembro 2 2 0 0 +2 6
12 Vila Caíz 2 2 0 0 +2 6
13 AD Marco 09 2 2 0 0 +2 6
14 Celoricense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
15 Ovarense 2 1 1 0 +6 4
16 Marinhense 2 1 1 0 +6 4
17 Moncarapachense 2 1 1 0 +3 4
18 Gouveia 2 1 1 0 +2 4
19 Anadia 2 1 1 0 +1 4
20 Mortágua 2 1 1 0 +1 4
21 Os Marialvas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
22 Peniche 2 1 0 1 +7 3
23 Benfica Castelo Branco 1 1 0 0 +6 3
24 Alpendorada 1 1 0 0 +6 3
25 Sacavenense 2 1 0 1 +5 3
26 Atlético Malveira 2 1 0 1 +5 3
27 Bragança 1 1 0 0 +5 3
28 Lusitânia Lourosa 1 1 0 0 +5 3
29 Louletano 1 1 0 0 +5 3
30 São João Ver 1 1 0 0 +4 3
31 Felgueiras 1932 1 1 0 0 +4 3
32 Trofense 2 1 0 1 +3 3
33 Academico Viseu 1 1 0 0 +3 3
34 União de Leiria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
35 O Elvas 2 1 0 1 +2 3
36 Oliveirense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
37 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +2 3
38 AD Fornos Algodres 1 1 0 0 +2 3
39 Naval 1893 2 1 0 1 +2 3
40 Torreense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
41 Ançã 1 1 0 0 +2 3
42 Benfica 1 1 0 0 +2 3
43 Farense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
44 Silves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
45 Rebordosa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
46 Sintrense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
47 Mirandela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 União Lamas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
49 Portimonense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
50 Resende 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Fafe 1 1 0 0 +1 3
52 Atlético CP 1 1 0 0 +1 3
53 Leixoes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Pacos Ferreira 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 Uniao Nogueirense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
56 Salgueiros 2 1 0 1 +0 3
57 Correlhã 2 1 0 1 +0 3
58 Chaves 2 1 0 1 +0 3
59 Oriental Lisboa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Nazarenos 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 Monção 2 1 0 1 -1 3
62 Machico 2 1 0 1 -1 3
63 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2 1 0 1 -3 3
64 Brito 2 1 0 1 -4 3
65 Castrense 2 1 0 1 -4 3
66 Rebordelo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 SC Covilha 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Samora Correir 1 0 1 0 +0 1
69 Portimonense B 1 0 1 0 +0 1
70 Penafiel 1 0 1 0 +0 1
71 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
72 Charneca Caparica 2 0 1 1 -2 1
73 Oliveira Hospital 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Eléctrico 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Camacha 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Maria da Fonte 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Alcochetense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Fazendense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Tirsense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Lagoa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 AR São Martinho 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Castro Daire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Vitória de Sernache 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Carregal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Academica 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Juventude Évora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Vilaverdense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Quarteirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Amora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Ribeira Brava 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Florgrade 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Cinfães 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Mafra 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Celeirós 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Sourense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Águias do Moradal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Pontassolense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
100 Beira-Mar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
101 Aparecida GO 1 0 0 1 -2 0
102 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -2 0
103 Leça 1 0 0 1 -2 0
104 União Santarém 1 0 0 1 -2 0
105 Paredes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
106 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 UD da Serra 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 Valpaços 1 0 0 1 -2 0
109 Vidago 1 0 0 1 -2 0
110 Valenciano 1 0 0 1 -3 0
111 Lusitânia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
112 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
113 Portel 1 0 0 1 -3 0
114 Fátima 1 0 0 1 -3 0
115 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -3 0
116 Portalegrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
117 Varzim 1 0 0 1 -4 0
118 Almodôvar 1 0 0 1 -4 0
119 Sanjoanense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
120 AD Portomosense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
121 Os Limianos 1 0 0 1 -4 0
122 Operário 1 0 0 1 -5 0
123 Fayal 1 0 0 1 -5 0
124 Angrense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
125 Estrela Calheta 1 0 0 1 -6 0
126 SC Celoricense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
127 Mosteirense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
128 Urzelinense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
129 Lajense 2 0 0 2 -7 0
130 Rabo Peixe 1 0 0 1 -7 0
131 Ferreira Zêzere 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rebordelo Nacional
8′
C. Goncalves 0–1
28′
Witi 0–2
38′
Watts 0–3
Half-time 0–3
L. Alexandre 🔁
↦ I. Oliveira
46′
46′
🔁 Daniel Junior
↦ Watts
46′
🔁 M. Nourani
↦ Witi
46′
🔁 Jota Garces
↦ Ze Vitor
🟨
54′
55′
🟨
58′
🟨
A. Dangue 🔁
↦ B. Freitas
60′
Marinho 🔁
↦ Joao Victor
60′
60′
🔁 Deivison
↦ J. Silva
70′
🔁 Josue
↦ A. Nunez
D. Ribeiro 🔁
↦ A. Silva
74′
1–3 Marinho
82′
S. Machado 🔁
↦ D. Mora
91′
95′
🟨
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Rebordelo

J. Martins
F. Arims
C. Perreira
A. Silva
Joao Victor
D. Mora
C. Semedo
B. Freitas
T. Ribeiro
I. Oliveira
Katurra
Bench (9)
F. Santos
C. Barbosa
D. Ribeiro
V. Ferreiro
L. Alexandre
A. Dangue
S. Machado
Marinho
Vini

Nacional

50 K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
16 A. Nunez
33 C. Goncalves
38 Ze Vitor
24 L. Vallier
18 A. Sousa
22 F. Soares
26 J. Silva
30 Watts
7 Witi
19 L. Joao
Bench (9)
1 Kaique Pereira
2 J. Aurelio
10 Daniel Junior
11 Paulinho Boia
17 M. Nourani
20 Jota Garces
28 Liziero
48 Josue
88 Deivison

Coach: Tiago Margarido

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.