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Taça de Portugal
0–4
Full-time
Porto
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celoricense Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
100%
83%
Points per game
3,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 9%
0%
17%
Average goals
1,0
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
0,0
0,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Espinho 3 2 1 0 +5 7
2 Alpendorada 2 2 0 0 +8 6
3 Lusitano Évora 1911 2 2 0 0 +7 6
4 CD Olivais e Moscavide 2 2 0 0 +7 6
5 Caldas 2 2 0 0 +7 6
6 Vila Meã 2 2 0 0 +6 6
7 Vianense 2 2 0 0 +4 6
8 Comércio Indústria 2 2 0 0 +3 6
9 Vila Real 2 2 0 0 +3 6
10 Amarante 2 2 0 0 +3 6
11 CF Os Belenenses 2 2 0 0 +3 6
12 1º Dezembro 2 2 0 0 +2 6
13 Vila Caíz 2 2 0 0 +2 6
14 AD Marco 09 2 2 0 0 +2 6
15 Celoricense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
16 Ovarense 2 1 1 0 +6 4
17 Marinhense 2 1 1 0 +6 4
18 Moncarapachense 2 1 1 0 +3 4
19 União de Leiria 2 1 1 0 +2 4
20 Gouveia 2 1 1 0 +2 4
21 Torreense 2 1 1 0 +2 4
22 Oliveirense 2 1 1 0 +2 4
23 SC Covilha 2 1 1 0 +1 4
24 Anadia 2 1 1 0 +1 4
25 Mortágua 2 1 1 0 +1 4
26 Os Marialvas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
27 Peniche 2 1 0 1 +7 3
28 AVS 1 1 0 0 +7 3
29 Benfica Castelo Branco 1 1 0 0 +6 3
30 Sacavenense 2 1 0 1 +5 3
31 Atlético Malveira 2 1 0 1 +5 3
32 Lusitânia Lourosa 1 1 0 0 +5 3
33 Louletano 1 1 0 0 +5 3
34 Bragança 2 1 0 1 +4 3
35 Felgueiras 1932 1 1 0 0 +4 3
36 Trofense 2 1 0 1 +3 3
37 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +3 3
38 Academico Viseu 1 1 0 0 +3 3
39 O Elvas 2 1 0 1 +2 3
40 Nacional 1 1 0 0 +2 3
41 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +2 3
42 Naval 1893 2 1 0 1 +2 3
43 Ançã 1 1 0 0 +2 3
44 Benfica 1 1 0 0 +2 3
45 Farense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
46 São João Ver 2 1 0 1 +1 3
47 Silves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 Arouca 1 1 0 0 +1 3
49 Rebordosa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
50 Sintrense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Mirandela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
52 União Lamas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
53 Sp Braga 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Resende 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 Fafe 1 1 0 0 +1 3
56 Atlético CP 1 1 0 0 +1 3
57 Leixoes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
58 Pacos Ferreira 1 1 0 0 +1 3
59 Salgueiros 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Portimonense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 Correlhã 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 Chaves 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 Oriental Lisboa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
64 Uniao Nogueirense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
65 Nazarenos 2 1 0 1 +0 3
66 Monção 2 1 0 1 -1 3
67 Machico 2 1 0 1 -1 3
68 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2 1 0 1 -3 3
69 Brito 2 1 0 1 -4 3
70 Castrense 2 1 0 1 -4 3
71 AD Fornos Algodres 2 1 0 1 -5 3
72 Alverca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
73 Samora Correir 1 0 1 0 +0 1
74 Portimonense B 1 0 1 0 +0 1
75 Penafiel 1 0 1 0 +0 1
76 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
77 Santa Clara 1 0 1 0 +0 1
78 Rebordelo 2 0 1 1 -2 1
79 Charneca Caparica 2 0 1 1 -2 1
80 Oliveira Hospital 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Eléctrico 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Camacha 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Maria da Fonte 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Alcochetense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Fazendense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Tirsense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Lagoa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 AR São Martinho 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Castro Daire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Vitória de Sernache 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Carregal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Academica 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Juventude Évora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Vilaverdense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Quarteirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Amora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Ribeira Brava 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Florgrade 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 Cinfães 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Mafra 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Celeirós 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Sourense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 Águias do Moradal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Pontassolense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 Beira-Mar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 Estrela 1 0 0 1 -2 0
109 Aparecida GO 1 0 0 1 -2 0
110 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -2 0
111 Leça 1 0 0 1 -2 0
112 União Santarém 1 0 0 1 -2 0
113 Paredes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
114 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
115 UD da Serra 1 0 0 1 -2 0
116 Valpaços 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Vidago 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Valenciano 1 0 0 1 -3 0
119 Lusitânia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
120 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
121 Portel 1 0 0 1 -3 0
122 Fátima 1 0 0 1 -3 0
123 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -3 0
124 Portalegrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
125 Varzim 1 0 0 1 -4 0
126 Almodôvar 1 0 0 1 -4 0
127 Sanjoanense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
128 AD Portomosense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
129 Os Limianos 1 0 0 1 -4 0
130 Operário 1 0 0 1 -5 0
131 Fayal 1 0 0 1 -5 0
132 Angrense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
133 Estrela Calheta 1 0 0 1 -6 0
134 SC Celoricense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
135 Mosteirense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
136 Urzelinense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
137 Lajense 2 0 0 2 -7 0
138 Rabo Peixe 1 0 0 1 -7 0
139 Ferreira Zêzere 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Celoricense Porto
9′
J. Bednarek 0–1
Half-time 0–1
G. Pereira 🔁
↦ J. Renteria
46′
46′
🔁 D. Prpic
↦ J. Kiwior
57′
🟨 J. Bednarek
59′
🔁 R. Mora
↦ G. Veiga
59′
🔁 William Gomes
↦ B. Sainz
60′
🔁 Samu
↦ D. Gul
62′
Samu 0–2
D. Alves 🟨
66′
Whalysson 🔁
↦ D. Alves
68′
Joao Andre 🔁
↦ Didi
69′
71′
Samu 0–3
73′
Samu 0–4
74′
🔁 S. Eustaquio
↦ V. Froholdt
N. Pinto 🔁
↦ J. Padi
76′
Lucas 🔁
↦ Juninho
80′
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Celoricense

99 G. Machado
13 C. Mendes
17 Diogo Miguel
70 J. Padi
5 P. Pinto
14 Matchu
7 Didi
25 Andrezinho
10 D. Alves
11 J. Renteria
80 Juninho
Bench (8)
18 N. Pinto
22 G. Borges
27 R. Silva
19 F. Tirado
4 Joao Andre
8 G. Pereira
Lucas
9 Whalysson

Porto

14 Claudio Ramos
20 A. Costa
5 J. Bednarek
74 F. Moura
4 J. Kiwior
22 A. Varela
8 V. Froholdt
11 Pepê
10 G. Veiga
17 B. Sainz
27 D. Gul
Bench (9)
24 J. Costa
52 M. Fernandes
21 D. Prpic
13 P. Rosario
86 R. Mora
6 S. Eustaquio
7 William Gomes
75 Y. Karamoh
9 Samu

Coach: Francesco Farioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.