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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Barcelona

S S S T T

2–1

Full-time

Girona

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Girona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

75%

13%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

88%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

3,9

2,8

Scored

2,8

0,6

Conceded

1,1

2,1

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,61 xG 1,55

68% Possession 32%

27 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 2. · Girona 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+10	+8.2	21
2	Barcelona	8	6	1	1	+13	+9.0	19
3	Villarreal	8	5	1	2	+6	+2.8	16
4	Betis	8	4	3	1	+5	+3.2	15
5	Espanol	9	4	3	2	+2	+6.4	15
6	Ath Madrid	8	3	4	1	+5	+4.9	13
7	Sevilla	9	4	1	4	+2	-6.2	13
8	Elche	8	3	4	1	+2	-0.6	13
9	Ath Bilbao	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.8	13
10	Alaves	8	3	2	3	+1	+1.3	11
11	Getafe	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
12	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.3	10
13	Levante	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.3	8
14	Vallecano	8	2	2	4	-2	+0.7	8
15	Mallorca	9	2	2	5	-4	-8.2	8
16	Valencia	8	2	2	4	-4	-2.1	8
17	Celta	8	0	6	2	-3	+0.2	6
18	Girona	8	1	3	4	-12	-9.2	6
19	Oviedo	9	2	0	7	-12	-10.5	6
20	Sociedad	8	1	2	5	-5	-2.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	4	4	0	0	+9	+4.2	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+5.1	12
3	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.8	10
4	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.6	10
5	Elche	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.1	10
6	Espanol	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.9	10
7	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+2	+6.5	10
8	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.8	9
9	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	+2.0	9
10	Valencia	4	2	1	1	+4	+3.8	7
11	Alaves	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
12	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.7	5
13	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	-2	-3.7	5
14	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.8	4
15	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.1	4
16	Celta	5	0	4	1	-2	+3.2	4
17	Girona	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.5	4
18	Oviedo	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.5	3
19	Vallecano	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
20	Levante	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.2	10
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.0	9
3	Sevilla	4	3	0	1	+3	-4.5	9
4	Levante	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.2	7
5	Betis	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.2	6
6	Vallecano	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.8	6
7	Getafe	5	2	0	3	-4	-0.9	6
8	Espanol	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
9	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
10	Villarreal	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.4	4
11	Ath Madrid	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.0	3
12	Mallorca	5	1	0	4	-2	-4.5	3
13	Elche	4	0	3	1	-2	-2.7	3
14	Ath Bilbao	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
15	Oviedo	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.0	3
16	Celta	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.0	2
17	Girona	3	0	2	1	-5	-4.7	2
18	Sociedad	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.4	1
19	Valencia	4	0	1	3	-8	-6.0	1
20	Osasuna	4	0	0	4	-5	-1.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.