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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Roma

S S S T S

0–1

Full-time

Inter

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,5

4,2

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,35 xG 0,63

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 29

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 2. · Inter 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+5	+5.1	15
2	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+1.6	15
3	Milan	6	4	1	1	+6	+3.6	13
4	Inter	6	4	0	2	+9	+8.3	12
5	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+4	+1.1	12
6	Atalanta	6	2	4	0	+6	+2.7	10
7	Bologna	6	3	1	2	+4	+2.8	10
8	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+0	-2.9	10
9	Como	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.7	9
10	Cremonese	6	2	3	1	-1	-5.4	9
11	Cagliari	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.8	8
12	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-3	+0.6	8
13	Torino	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.5	8
14	Lazio	6	2	1	3	+3	+0.6	7
15	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-5	-3.9	6
16	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.4	5
17	Verona	7	0	4	3	-7	-0.7	4
18	Fiorentina	6	0	3	3	-4	-2.0	3
19	Pisa	7	0	3	4	-7	-5.0	3
20	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-6	-1.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
2	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.4	9
4	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
5	Roma	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
6	Milan	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
7	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
8	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.0	5
9	Como	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.4	5
10	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.7	4
11	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
12	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
13	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
14	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.2	4
15	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.4	2
16	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
17	Lecce	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.1	2
18	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.8	2
19	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.2	1
20	Fiorentina	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.6	9
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.3	7
3	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.7	6
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.2	6
5	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
6	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Como	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.3	4
9	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.5	4
10	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
11	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.9	4
12	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
13	Inter	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
14	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.0	3
15	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
16	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
17	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.4	1
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
19	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
20	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.