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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Bayern Munich

S S S S T

4–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,7

Scored

2,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 64%

60%

68%

Points per game

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 58%

64%

52%

Average goals

4,0

3,4

Scored

2,9

2,2

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,26 xG 1,71

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Dortmund 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	25	17	2	6	+24	+7.8	53
2	Bayern Munich	25	15	7	3	+45	+4.8	52
3	Union Berlin	26	15	6	5	+13	-1.6	51
4	Freiburg	26	13	8	5	+4	-2.6	47
5	RB Leipzig	26	13	6	7	+16	+5.0	45
6	Ein Frankfurt	26	11	8	7	+10	-0.1	41
7	Leverkusen	26	12	4	10	+8	+8.5	40
8	Mainz	26	11	7	8	+7	+1.9	40
9	Wolfsburg	26	10	9	7	+12	+6.9	39
10	M'gladbach	25	8	7	10	-4	-1.0	31
11	Werder Bremen	25	9	4	12	-9	-5.4	31
12	Augsburg	26	8	5	13	-13	-6.2	29
13	FC Koln	25	6	9	10	-11	-1.0	27
14	Bochum	26	8	2	16	-29	-6.1	26
15	Hoffenheim	25	6	4	15	-12	-3.5	22
16	Hertha	26	5	7	14	-18	-5.1	22
17	Schalke 04	26	4	9	13	-27	-1.7	21
18	Stuttgart	26	4	8	14	-16	-0.5	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	10	1	1	+24	+4.9	31
2	Union Berlin	13	9	4	0	+16	+0.0	31
3	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+15	-1.9	29
4	Bayern Munich	12	8	4	0	+28	+8.1	28
5	Freiburg	13	8	4	1	+11	+0.1	28
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+13	+4.4	24
7	M'gladbach	13	7	3	3	+10	+3.7	24
8	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	+9	+4.6	20
9	Mainz	13	5	5	3	+8	+1.5	20
10	Bochum	12	6	1	5	-3	+0.9	19
11	FC Koln	12	5	3	4	+7	+2.9	18
12	Wolfsburg	13	4	6	3	+6	+5.8	18
13	Augsburg	13	5	3	5	-4	-1.4	18
14	Hertha	13	4	5	4	-1	-0.1	17
15	Werder Bremen	13	5	1	7	+1	+0.6	16
16	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	+0	+1.2	15
17	Hoffenheim	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.1	14
18	Schalke 04	14	3	4	7	-17	-2.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	7	3	3	+17	-3.3	24
2	Dortmund	13	7	1	5	+0	+2.8	22
3	Wolfsburg	13	6	3	4	+6	+1.1	21
4	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	-1	+3.9	20
5	Mainz	13	6	2	5	-1	+0.4	20
6	Union Berlin	13	6	2	5	-3	-1.7	20
7	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	-7	-2.7	19
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	5	4	-3	-4.5	17
9	RB Leipzig	13	4	4	5	+1	+7.0	16
10	Werder Bremen	12	4	3	5	-10	-6.1	15
11	Augsburg	13	3	2	8	-9	-4.8	11
12	FC Koln	13	1	6	6	-18	-3.9	9
13	Hoffenheim	12	2	2	8	-7	-4.6	8
14	Schalke 04	12	1	5	6	-10	+1.1	8
15	M'gladbach	12	1	4	7	-14	-4.7	7
16	Bochum	14	2	1	11	-26	-7.0	7
17	Stuttgart	13	0	5	8	-16	-1.7	5
18	Hertha	13	1	2	10	-17	-5.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.