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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Dortmund
S S U S S
4–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,7
1,8
Scored
2,5
0,5
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
8,0
2,0
Scored
4,0
0,0
Conceded
4,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,18 xG 0,95
52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 0
3 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Dortmund Ath Bilbao
1–0 D. Svensson ⚽
K. Adeyemi
28′
43′
🟨 Aitor Paredes
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 G. Guruzeta
↦ I. Williams
46′
🔁 A. Laporte
↦ D. Vivian
46′
🔁 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
↦ M. Jauregizar
2–0 C. Chukwuemeka ⚽
S. Guirassy
50′
59′
🟨 Andoni Gorosabel
61′
⚽ G. Guruzeta 2–1
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ C. Chukwuemeka
63′
M. Beier 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
63′
63′
🔁 N. Serrano
↦ U. Gomez
N. Schlotterbeck 🔁
↦ N. Sule
69′
F. Nmecha 🔁
↦ J. Bellingham
69′
80′
🔁 I. Sanchez
↦ M. Sannadi
3–1 S. Guirassy ⚽
M. Sabitzer
82′
F. Silva 🔁
↦ S. Guirassy
87′
Maximilian Beier 🟨
89′
4–1 J. Brandt ⚽
M. Beier
90′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel G
25 N. Sule D
3 W. Anton D
5 R. Bensebaini D
26 J. Ryerson M
20 M. Sabitzer M
7 J. Bellingham M
24 D. Svensson M
27 K. Adeyemi F
17 C. Chukwuemeka F
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (8)
33 A. Meyer
2 Y. Couto
4 N. Schlotterbeck
8 F. Nmecha
10 J. Brandt
13 P. Gross
14 M. Beier
21 F. Silva

Coach: Niko Kovac

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 U. Simon G
2 A. Gorosabel D
3 D. Vivian D
4 A. Paredes D
15 I. Lekue D
30 A. Rego M
18 M. Jauregizar M
9 I. Williams M
20 U. Gomez M
23 R. Navarro M
21 M. Sannadi F
Bench (12)
26 M. Santos
27 A. Padilla
8 O. Sancet
11 G. Guruzeta
12 J. Areso
14 A. Laporte
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
17 Y. Berchiche
19 A. Boiro
22 N. Serrano
33 A. Perez
35 I. Sanchez

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.