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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Brighton

T U S S U

2–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 58%

86%

29%

Average goals

2,9

1,6

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,91 xG 1,45

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 12. · Newcastle 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+11	+7.8	16
2	Liverpool	7	5	0	2	+4	+3.1	15
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+8	-1.3	14
4	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+0.6	14
5	Bournemouth	7	4	2	1	+3	+2.1	14
6	Man City	7	4	1	2	+9	+4.8	13
7	Crystal Palace	7	3	3	1	+4	+4.1	12
8	Everton	7	3	2	2	+2	+0.0	11
9	Sunderland	7	3	2	2	+1	-2.0	11
10	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	+4.0	10
11	Newcastle	7	2	3	2	+1	+3.7	9
12	Brighton	7	2	3	2	+0	+2.1	9
13	Aston Villa	7	2	3	2	-1	-3.6	9
14	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.9	8
15	Leeds	7	2	2	3	-4	-0.3	8
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
17	Nott'm Forest	8	1	2	5	-10	-5.4	5
18	Burnley	7	1	1	5	-8	-8.7	4
19	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-10	-4.7	4
20	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-9	-3.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+10	+6.7	10
2	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.2	10
3	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
4	Man United	4	3	0	1	+3	+5.2	9
5	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.7	8
6	Sunderland	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
7	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
8	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.0	7
9	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
10	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
11	Man City	3	2	0	1	+5	+3.2	6
12	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+1	+3.1	6
13	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
14	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.4	5
15	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.7	5
16	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.3	4
17	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.5	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
19	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.8	1
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	-1.0	10
2	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+6	-0.3	7
3	Man City	4	2	1	1	+4	+1.6	7
4	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
5	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.2	6
6	Liverpool	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.4	6
7	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.1	4
8	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.8	4
9	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.3	4
10	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.8	4
11	Newcastle	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
12	Everton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
13	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.1	3
14	Aston Villa	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
15	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-5	-4.7	2
16	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.6	1
17	Man United	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
19	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.1	0
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.