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DFB-Pokal
Referee: F Badstübner
Wolfsburg
T S T T T
1–0
Full-time
RB Leipzig
T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsburg RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
6,0
5,0
Scored
6,0
3,0
Conceded
0,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+6,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%
12 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 6
3 Offside 4
17 Free kicks against 11
5 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Wolfsburg 7. · RB Leipzig 24.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Nurnberg 1 1 0 0 +8 3
2 Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 +8 3
3 Heidenheim 1 1 0 0 +8 3
4 Paderborn 1 1 0 0 +7 3
5 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +7 3
6 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +7 3
7 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +6 3
8 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 +5 3
9 Hertha 1 1 0 0 +5 3
10 St Pauli 1 1 0 0 +5 3
11 Kaiserslautern 1 1 0 0 +5 3
12 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 +4 3
13 Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 +4 3
14 Union Berlin 1 1 0 0 +4 3
15 Hoffenheim 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 FC 08 Homburg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 FC Koln 1 1 0 0 +2 3
18 Schalke 04 1 1 0 0 +2 3
19 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 Holstein Kiel 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 SpVgg Unterhaching 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Hamburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
24 RB Leipzig 1 1 0 0 +1 3
25 FC Viktoria Koln 1 1 0 0 +1 3
26 Magdeburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 FC Saarbrücken 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Mainz 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Greuther Furth 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Sandhausen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 Hannover 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 Bielefeld 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 Bochum 1 0 1 0 +0 1
34 FSV Frankfurt 1 0 1 0 +0 1
35 Hansa Rostock 1 0 1 0 +0 1
36 Rot-Weiß Essen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Wehen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Regensburg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
40 Karlsruhe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
41 Elversberg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Hallescher FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
43 Osnabruck 1 0 0 1 -2 0
44 Braunschweig 1 0 0 1 -2 0
45 Illertissen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
46 Oberachern 1 0 0 1 -2 0
47 FC Gutersloh 1 0 0 1 -2 0
48 Augsburg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
49 VfB Lubeck 1 0 0 1 -3 0
50 Darmstadt 1 0 0 1 -3 0
51 Preußen Münster 1 0 0 1 -4 0
52 Balingen 1 0 0 1 -4 0
53 FC Astoria Walldorf 1 0 0 1 -4 0
54 Schott Mainz 1 0 0 1 -5 0
55 Carl Zeiss Jena 1 0 0 1 -5 0
56 Atlas Delmenhorst 1 0 0 1 -5 0
57 TuS RW Koblenz 1 0 0 1 -5 0
58 Makkabi 1 0 0 1 -6 0
59 Cottbus 1 0 0 1 -7 0
60 Bersenbrück 1 0 0 1 -7 0
61 Lokomotive Leipzig 1 0 0 1 -7 0
62 Oberneuland 1 0 0 1 -8 0
63 Teutonia Ottensen 1 0 0 1 -8 0
64 Rostocker FC 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolfsburg RB Leipzig
1–0 V. Černý
Tiago Tomás
14′
42′
🟨 Yussuf Poulsen
Maxence Lacroix 🟨
43′
Half-time 1–0
47′
🟨 Xaver Schlager
Aster Vranckx 🟨
52′
56′
🟨 Yussuf Poulsen
56′
🟥 Yussuf Poulsen
64′
🟨 Castello Lukeba
K. Paredes 🔁
↦ V. Černý
65′
Ridle Baku 🟨
70′
73′
🔁 M. Simakan
↦ C. Lukeba
73′
🔁 K. Kampl
↦ X. Schlager
73′
🔁 B. Šeško
↦ T. Werner
J. Wind 🔁
↦ Tiago Tomás
74′
J. Mæhle 🔁
↦ R. Baku
74′
80′
🔁 C. Baumgartner
↦ A. Haidara
L. Majer 🔁
↦ J. Kamiński
81′
M. Arnold 🔁
↦ A. Vranckx
81′
Pavao Pervan 🟨
82′
Kevin Paredes 🟨
84′
86′
🔁 Fábio Carvalho
↦ L. Openda
97′
🟨 Mohamed Simakan
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Wolfsburg

3-4-3
12 P. Pervan G
4 M. Lacroix D
3 S. Bornauw D
5 C. Zesiger D
20 R. Baku M
32 M. Svanberg M
6 A. Vranckx M
31 Y. Gerhardt M
7 V. Černý F
11 Tiago Tomás F
16 J. Kamiński F
Bench (9)
40 K. Paredes
23 J. Wind
21 J. Mæhle
19 L. Majer
27 M. Arnold
18 D. Pejčinović
8 N. Cozza
25 M. Jenz
35 P. Schulze

Coach: N. Kovač

RB Leipzig

4-4-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
39 B. Henrichs D
16 L. Klostermann D
23 C. Lukeba D
22 D. Raum D
20 X. Simons M
8 A. Haidara M
24 X. Schlager M
11 T. Werner M
17 L. Openda F
9 Y. Poulsen F
Bench (9)
2 M. Simakan
44 K. Kampl
30 B. Šeško
14 C. Baumgartner
18 Fábio Carvalho
21 J. Blaswich
13 N. Seiwald
10 E. Forsberg
3 C. Lenz

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Badstübner · 96 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.