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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

RB Leipzig

S S T T S

3–1

Full-time

Freiburg

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

4,2

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

70%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,90 xG 0,54

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	10	1	0	+24	+12.0	31
2	Bayern Munich	11	9	2	0	+33	+24.5	29
3	Stuttgart	11	8	0	3	+15	+16.0	24
4	Dortmund	11	6	3	2	+4	+0.8	21
5	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+16	+4.1	20
6	Hoffenheim	11	6	1	4	+3	-0.9	19
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	4	6	1	+6	+1.7	18
8	Freiburg	10	4	2	4	-6	-0.1	14
9	M'gladbach	11	3	4	4	+0	-0.2	13
10	Augsburg	11	3	4	4	-3	+0.7	13
11	Wolfsburg	11	4	1	6	-5	-0.6	13
12	Werder Bremen	11	3	2	6	-4	-4.6	11
13	Heidenheim	11	3	1	7	-9	-13.0	10
14	Bochum	11	1	6	4	-14	-7.2	9
15	Darmstadt	11	2	2	7	-18	-11.9	8
16	Mainz	11	1	4	6	-13	-5.4	7
17	FC Koln	11	1	3	7	-14	-11.4	6
18	Union Berlin	11	2	0	9	-15	-4.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	6	6	0	0	+16	+10.2	18
2	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
3	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.9	15
4	Dortmund	6	4	1	1	+1	+3.3	13
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+13	+3.9	11
6	Wolfsburg	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.0	10
7	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+2	-0.5	10
8	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.4	10
9	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	3	0	+3	+2.8	9
10	Augsburg	6	2	3	1	+1	+1.1	9
11	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+1	-5.1	9
12	M'gladbach	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.2	7
13	Darmstadt	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.7	5
14	Bochum	5	0	4	1	-2	+3.4	4
15	FC Koln	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.5	4
16	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.7	4
17	Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.6	3
18	Union Berlin	5	1	0	4	-8	-3.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	6	5	1	0	+7	-0.2	16
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+11	+8.5	13
3	Leverkusen	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.8	13
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+3	-1.1	9
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.2	9
6	Stuttgart	5	3	0	2	+1	+4.1	9
7	Dortmund	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.5	8
8	M'gladbach	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.4	6
9	Bochum	6	1	2	3	-12	-10.5	5
10	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
11	Freiburg	5	1	1	3	-8	-2.6	4
12	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
13	Mainz	6	0	3	3	-8	-4.7	3
14	Wolfsburg	6	1	0	5	-9	-2.6	3
15	Darmstadt	5	1	0	4	-14	-10.3	3
16	FC Koln	6	0	2	4	-11	-9.8	2
17	Werder Bremen	5	0	1	4	-6	-4.1	1
18	Heidenheim	6	0	1	5	-10	-7.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.