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Bundesliga
Referee: M Schüttengruber
Hartberg
U T S U T
3–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hartberg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,7
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,8
This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 45%
22%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
44%
89%
Both score Ø 78%
78%
78%
Average goals
3,3
3,8
Scored
1,7
2,7
Conceded
1,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

36% Possession 64%
7 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 10
2 Offside 4
19 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hartberg 9. · Sturm Graz 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 9 9 0 0 +19 27
2 Sturm Graz 9 6 2 1 +14 20
3 A. Klagenfurt 10 3 4 3 -1 13
4 Ried 10 3 4 3 -8 13
5 Admira 10 3 3 4 +0 12
6 Wolfsberger AC 10 3 3 4 -5 12
7 Austria Vienna 10 2 5 3 +0 11
8 LASK 9 2 4 3 -2 10
9 Hartberg 9 2 3 4 +0 9
10 Altach 10 2 3 5 -8 9
11 SK Rapid 9 2 2 5 -3 8
12 Tirol 9 1 5 3 -6 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.