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Ligue 1
Referee: Bastien Dechepy
Strasbourg
T U S S T
2–1
Full-time
Lens
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Lens
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
3,3
Scored
1,5
2,3
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
4,0
7,0
Scored
0,0
5,0
Conceded
4,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-4,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,83 xG 2,91
52% Possession 48%
16 Shots 17
7 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 4
6 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 6
3 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Strasbourg 18. · Lens 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lille 2 1 1 0 +2 -0.9 4
2 Marseille 1 1 0 0 +4 +1.7 3
3 Lens 1 1 0 0 +3 +2.6 3
4 Lyon 1 1 0 0 +2 -2.1 3
5 Monaco 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.8 3
6 Paris SG 2 0 2 0 +0 +1.5 2
7 Rennes 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.3 1
8 Le Mans 1 0 1 0 +0 -2.1 1
9 Brest 1 0 1 0 +0 +2.1 1
10 Nice 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.2 1
11 Lorient 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.2 1
12 Troyes 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.4 1
13 Paris FC 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.4 1
14 Le Havre 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.8 0
15 Angers 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.8 0
16 Toulouse 1 0 0 1 -2 +2.1 0
17 Auxerre 1 0 0 1 -3 -2.6 0
18 Strasbourg 1 0 0 1 -4 -1.7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

27. Feb -26 Strasbourg – Lens 1–1 22. Nov -25 Lens – Strasbourg 1–0 16. Feb -25 Lens – Strasbourg 0–2 6. Oct -24 Strasbourg – Lens 2–2 10. Feb -24 Lens – Strasbourg 3–1

Match report

Strasbourg Lens
Jeyland Mitchell 🟨
36′
38′
⚽ Florian Thauvin 0–1
Half-time 1–1
1–1 Gessime Yassine ⚽
Sebastian Nanasi
48′
Jacobo Ortega ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
56′
62′
🔁 Ruben Aguilar
↦ Maik Nawrocki
69′
🟨 Franjo Ivanović
72′
🔁 Andrija Bulatović
↦ Michaël Cuisance
73′
🔁 Thorgan Hazard
↦ Franjo Ivanović
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 🔁
↦ Giovanni Reyna
76′
80′
🟨 Ruben Aguilar
Gessime Yassine 🟨
83′
Sékou Mara 🔁
↦ Jacobo Ortega
83′
Karim Coulibaly 🔁
↦ Lucas Høgsberg
83′
2–1 Gessime Yassine ⚽
Sebastian Nanasi
85′
89′
🔁 Mezian Mesloub
↦ Michał Skóraś
89′
🔁 Florian Sotoca
↦ Abdallah Sima
Fabio Baldé 🔁
↦ Gessime Yassine
90′
Mateo Del Blanco 🔁
↦ Sebastian Nanasi
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Strasbourg

4-3-3
1 Filip Jørgensen G
16 Genesis Antwi D
4 Jeyland Mitchell D
2 Andrew Omobamidele D
24 Lucas Høgsberg D
23 Diogo Sousa M
21 Pape Diop M
10 Giovanni Reyna M
80 Gessime Yassine F
30 Jacobo Ortega F
11 Sebastian Nanasi F
Bench (9)
7 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
31 Karim Coulibaly
14 Sékou Mara
15 Mateo Del Blanco
19 Fabio Baldé
12 Miłosz Piekutowski
45 Benjamin Brantlind
28 Tyrese Noubissie
17 Mathis Amougou

Coach: Hugo Oliveira

Lens

3-4-2-1
40 Robin Risser G
3 Maik Nawrocki D
25 Ismaelo Ganiou D
31 Souleymane Sagnan D
22 Michał Skóraś M
8 Yassine Titraoui M
27 Michaël Cuisance M
14 Matthieu Udol M
10 Florian Thauvin F
29 Franjo Ivanović F
19 Abdallah Sima F
Bench (9)
2 Ruben Aguilar
5 Andrija Bulatović
9 Thorgan Hazard
38 Mezian Mesloub
7 Florian Sotoca
16 Mathieu Gorgelin
4 Nidal Čelik
21 Amadou Haidara
18 Rayan Fofana

Coach: Dino Toppmoller

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,39
🔒
U
3,55
🔒
B
2,04
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,62
🔒
U2,5
2,21
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Bastien Dechepy · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.