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Championship

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Swansea

T U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Derby

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 63%

56%

69%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,63 xG 1,05

73% Possession 27%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

10 Free kicks against 20

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 20. · Derby 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	16	11	4	1	+28	+17.2	37
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+6	+3.0	29
3	Stoke	16	8	3	5	+10	-0.6	27
4	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+7	+1.5	26
5	Preston	16	7	5	4	+5	-0.0	26
6	Hull	16	7	4	5	+1	-9.7	25
7	Millwall	16	7	4	5	-5	+1.4	25
8	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	+10	+13.3	24
9	Birmingham	16	7	3	6	+6	+11.7	24
10	Leicester	16	6	6	4	+3	-1.4	24
11	Watford	16	6	5	5	+2	+3.3	23
12	Derby	16	6	5	5	+0	-6.5	23
13	Charlton	16	6	5	5	+0	-6.0	23
14	Wrexham	16	5	7	4	+1	-5.6	22
15	QPR	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.9	22
16	West Brom	16	6	3	7	-3	-0.5	21
17	Southampton	15	5	5	5	+1	+7.1	20
18	Blackburn	15	6	1	8	-4	+4.2	19
19	Portsmouth	16	4	5	7	-6	-4.5	17
20	Swansea	16	4	5	7	-7	-7.2	17
21	Oxford	16	3	5	8	-6	-4.2	14
22	Sheffield United	16	4	1	11	-12	+1.6	13
23	Norwich	16	2	3	11	-12	-8.2	9
24	Sheffield Weds	16	1	5	10	-20	-11.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	6	2	0	+16	+7.2	20
2	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+12	+11.7	17
3	Watford	8	5	2	1	+6	+3.7	17
4	Middlesbrough	7	5	2	0	+5	-0.2	17
5	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
6	Hull	8	5	2	1	+3	-2.0	17
7	Ipswich	9	4	4	1	+6	+12.1	16
8	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.2	14
9	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
10	Stoke	7	4	1	2	+6	+2.4	13
11	Leicester	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.9	13
12	Millwall	8	4	1	3	-2	+1.8	13
13	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.1	12
14	Wrexham	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.6	12
15	Derby	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
16	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
17	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.8	11
18	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.4	9
19	Southampton	6	2	2	2	+0	+5.0	8
20	Oxford	8	1	4	3	-4	+0.6	7
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	+0.8	4
22	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	2	7	-18	-8.8	2
24	Norwich	7	0	0	7	-8	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	5	2	1	+12	+9.9	17
2	Blackburn	8	5	0	3	+2	+3.4	15
3	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.9	14
4	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.6	12
5	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.1	12
6	Middlesbrough	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
7	Millwall	8	3	3	2	-3	-0.4	12
8	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+1	-4.3	11
9	Derby	7	3	2	2	+1	-5.3	11
10	QPR	8	3	2	3	-4	-3.0	11
11	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.2	10
12	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.2	9
13	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.2	9
14	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-6.9	9
15	Sheffield United	9	3	0	6	-5	+0.2	9
16	West Brom	9	3	0	6	-5	-3.6	9
17	Ipswich	6	2	2	2	+4	+1.2	8
18	Hull	8	2	2	4	-2	-7.7	8
19	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	-4.7	8
20	Oxford	8	2	1	5	-2	-4.7	7
21	Birmingham	8	2	1	5	-6	+0.0	7
22	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-2	-3.1	6
23	Watford	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
24	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-5	-5.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.