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League Cup
Referee: R Ricardo
Swansea
S T S U S
0–1
Full-time
Birmingham
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Birmingham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%
14 Shots 6
2 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolves 1 1 0 0 +3 3
2 Crawley Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 Stevenage 1 1 0 0 +1 3
4 Cambridge United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Middlesbrough 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Walsall 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Tranmere 1 0 1 0 +0 1
8 Rochdale 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 QPR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Millwall 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Wycombe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
12 Barnet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Wrexham 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Bristol City 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 York 1 0 0 1 -2 0
16 Port Vale 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Swansea Birmingham
Melker Widell 🟨
21′
44′
A. Priske 0–1
C. Vicente
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 L. Buchanan
↦ A. Cochrane
Cameron Burgess 🟨
62′
J. Fulton 🔁
↦ M. Widell
63′
J. Key 🔁
↦ F. Lissah
63′
Z. Vipotnik 🔁
↦ A. Idah
63′
L. Walta 🔁
↦ M. K. Yeo
63′
63′
🔁 D. Gray
↦ Paik Seung-Ho
72′
🔁 E. Laird
↦ J. Stansfield
72′
🔁 L. Vazquez
↦ A. Priske
Eom Ji-Sung 🔁
↦ M. Stamenic
82′
95′
🔁 S. Wright
↦ C. Vicente
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Swansea

4-3-3
22 L. Vigouroux G
26 F. Lissah D
5 B. Cabango D
15 C. Burgess D
14 J. Tymon D
7 M. Widell M
6 M. Stamenic M
8 E. Just M
49 M. K. Yeo F
33 A. Idah F
30 J. Opoku
Bench (9)
1 A. Fisher
10 Eom Ji-Sung
35 Ronald
4 J. Fulton
23 S. Welsh
2 J. Key
9 Z. Vipotnik
21 L. Walta
20 T. Parente

Coach: Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos

Birmingham

4-4-2
1 J. Beadle G
26 B. Osayi-Samuel D
5 P. Neumann D
4 C. Klarer D
20 A. Cochrane D
7 C. Vicente M
24 T. Iwata M
14 J. E. Solis Romero M
28 J. Stansfield M
8 Paik Seung-Ho F
9 A. Priske F
Bench (9)
21 R. Allsop
10 D. Gray
11 S. Wright
25 K. Lund
23 D. Fry
16 P. Roberts
2 E. Laird
3 L. Buchanan
32 L. Vazquez

Coach: Chris Davies

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Ricardo · 23 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.