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League Cup

Referee: J Smith

Derby

T S T S T

1–2

Full-time

Lincoln

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Lincoln

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

71% Possession 29%

8 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Rochdale	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	York	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
7	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	York	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Rochdale	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	0
7	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.