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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Swansea

U S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 39/39 matches

Win Ø 30%

31%

28%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

46%

41%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

49%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,25 xG 0,65

63% Possession 37%

3 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 16. · Derby 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	40	23	15	2	+43	+16.5	84
2	Leeds	40	23	13	4	+51	+46.4	82
3	Sheffield United	36	24	6	6	+25	+13.3	78
4	Sunderland	37	21	11	5	+24	+13.9	74
5	Middlesbrough	40	17	9	14	+12	+12.2	60
6	West Brom	40	13	18	9	+12	+9.8	57
7	Bristol City	37	14	14	9	+8	+4.6	56
8	Coventry	38	16	7	15	+1	+16.9	55
9	Watford	39	15	8	16	-4	-5.8	53
10	Norwich	39	13	13	13	+7	+10.9	52
11	Blackburn	40	15	7	18	-1	-2.3	52
12	Sheffield Weds	39	14	10	15	-6	-2.1	52
13	Millwall	39	13	12	14	-3	+1.7	51
14	Preston	39	10	17	12	-7	-0.8	47
15	QPR	39	11	12	16	-8	-6.8	45
16	Swansea	39	12	9	18	-11	-2.6	45
17	Portsmouth	39	12	9	18	-14	-13.3	45
18	Stoke	39	10	12	17	-12	-16.4	42
19	Oxford	39	10	12	17	-17	-23.5	42
20	Derby	39	11	8	20	-9	-7.8	41
21	Hull	39	10	11	18	-9	-5.3	41
22	Cardiff	39	9	13	17	-20	-14.5	40
23	Luton	40	10	9	21	-25	-7.9	39
24	Plymouth	39	7	13	19	-37	-37.1	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	20	15	4	1	+38	+28.5	49
2	Burnley	20	11	9	0	+23	+10.6	42
3	Sunderland	19	12	6	1	+17	+13.9	42
4	Sheffield United	18	13	2	3	+14	+13.2	41
5	Bristol City	18	10	6	2	+14	+8.5	36
6	Watford	20	11	3	6	+5	+0.5	36
7	West Brom	20	9	8	3	+12	+10.6	35
8	Portsmouth	20	10	5	5	+11	+3.1	35
9	Middlesbrough	20	10	5	5	+8	+8.1	35
10	Norwich	20	9	7	4	+18	+12.5	34
11	Coventry	19	10	3	6	+8	+10.0	33
12	Blackburn	20	10	3	7	+7	+5.0	33
13	Oxford	19	9	5	5	+2	-5.2	32
14	Preston	19	7	10	2	+6	+7.0	31
15	Derby	20	9	3	8	+8	+2.0	30
16	Stoke	20	7	8	5	+4	-3.5	29
17	Millwall	19	8	4	7	+3	+6.3	28
18	Luton	20	7	7	6	+1	+6.9	28
19	QPR	19	7	6	6	+3	+3.4	27
20	Swansea	19	7	5	7	+4	+7.0	26
21	Plymouth	19	6	7	6	-2	-6.7	25
22	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	-2	-0.9	25
23	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-1	+3.8	22
24	Hull	20	4	7	9	-4	+4.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	20	12	6	2	+20	+6.0	42
2	Sheffield United	18	11	4	3	+11	+0.1	37
3	Leeds	20	8	9	3	+13	+17.9	33
4	Sunderland	18	9	5	4	+7	-0.1	32
5	Sheffield Weds	20	9	3	8	-5	-5.9	30
6	Middlesbrough	20	7	4	9	+4	+4.1	25
7	Millwall	20	5	8	7	-6	-4.6	23
8	West Brom	20	4	10	6	+0	-0.8	22
9	Hull	19	6	4	9	-5	-9.7	22
10	Coventry	19	6	4	9	-7	+6.9	22
11	Bristol City	19	4	8	7	-6	-4.0	20
12	Blackburn	20	5	4	11	-8	-7.3	19
13	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-15	-9.7	19
14	QPR	20	4	6	10	-11	-10.1	18
15	Norwich	19	4	6	9	-11	-1.5	18
16	Watford	19	4	5	10	-9	-6.3	17
17	Preston	20	3	7	10	-13	-7.9	16
18	Cardiff	19	2	9	8	-18	-13.6	15
19	Stoke	19	3	4	12	-16	-13.0	13
20	Derby	19	2	5	12	-17	-9.8	11
21	Luton	20	3	2	15	-26	-14.8	11
22	Oxford	20	1	7	12	-19	-18.3	10
23	Portsmouth	19	2	4	13	-25	-16.4	10
24	Plymouth	20	1	6	13	-35	-30.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.