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Ekstraklasa

Referee: T Kwiatkowski

Rakow

U S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Stal Mielec

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rakow Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 43%

62%

23%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

15%

38%

Both score Ø 35%

15%

54%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

0,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

17 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rakow 3. · Stal Mielec 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	1	2	+17	+7.7	31
2	Jagiellonia	13	9	1	3	+5	-1.4	28
3	Rakow	13	8	3	2	+12	+9.3	27
4	Cracovia	13	8	2	3	+9	+0.3	26
5	Legia	13	6	4	3	+11	+7.8	22
6	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	1	5	+4	+3.7	22
7	Piast Gliwice	13	5	4	4	+2	+0.2	19
8	Widzew Lodz	13	5	4	4	+0	-1.1	19
9	Gornik Zabrze	13	5	3	5	+3	+2.1	18
10	GKS Katowice	13	4	4	5	+2	+1.5	16
11	Motor Lublin	13	4	3	6	-8	-4.0	15
12	Zaglebie	13	4	3	6	-8	-3.4	15
13	Radomiak Radom	12	4	0	8	-3	+0.3	12
14	Stal Mielec	13	3	3	7	-6	+0.7	12
15	Korona Kielce	13	3	3	7	-11	-5.0	12
16	Lechia Gdansk	13	2	4	7	-10	-9.7	10
17	Slask Wroclaw	12	1	6	5	-7	-0.3	9
18	Puszcza	13	1	5	7	-12	-8.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Pogon Szczecin	7	7	0	0	+11	+7.1	21
2	Lech Poznan	7	6	0	1	+12	+7.1	18
3	Jagiellonia	7	5	1	1	+6	+3.3	16
4	Legia	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.9	13
5	Cracovia	7	3	2	2	+2	+1.4	11
6	Stal Mielec	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.7	11
7	Rakow	6	3	1	2	+5	+4.8	10
8	Gornik Zabrze	6	3	1	2	+4	+4.1	10
9	Zaglebie	6	3	1	2	+0	-0.3	10
10	Widzew Lodz	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.1	10
11	Radomiak Radom	6	3	0	3	+3	+3.5	9
12	Piast Gliwice	6	2	3	1	+2	-1.0	9
13	GKS Katowice	7	2	3	2	+2	-2.0	9
14	Motor Lublin	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.6	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	6	1	4	1	-1	+1.7	7
16	Korona Kielce	6	2	0	4	-3	-0.3	6
17	Puszcza	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.6	6
18	Lechia Gdansk	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	7	5	2	0	+7	+4.5	17
2	Cracovia	6	5	0	1	+7	-1.1	15
3	Lech Poznan	6	4	1	1	+5	+0.6	13
4	Jagiellonia	6	4	0	2	-1	-4.7	12
5	Piast Gliwice	7	3	1	3	+0	+1.2	10
6	Legia	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.9	9
7	Widzew Lodz	7	2	3	2	+0	-1.3	9
8	Gornik Zabrze	7	2	2	3	-1	-2.0	8
9	GKS Katowice	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.5	7
10	Motor Lublin	6	2	1	3	-5	-3.5	7
11	Korona Kielce	7	1	3	3	-8	-4.7	6
12	Lechia Gdansk	7	1	2	4	-6	-3.8	5
13	Zaglebie	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.1	5
14	Radomiak Radom	6	1	0	5	-6	-3.1	3
15	Slask Wroclaw	6	0	2	4	-6	-2.0	2
16	Puszcza	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.0	2
17	Stal Mielec	6	0	1	5	-7	-4.1	1
18	Pogon Szczecin	6	0	1	5	-7	-3.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.