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Ekstraklasa
Referee: D Kos
Stal Mielec
U U S T T
2–2
Full-time
Zaglebie
T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Zaglebie
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
1,2
0,7
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 29%
25%
33%
Points per game
0,9
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 29%
33%
25%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%
24 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 5
8 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Corners 0
2 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stal Mielec 15. · Zaglebie 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lech Poznan 13 10 1 2 +17 +7.7 31
2 Rakow 13 8 3 2 +12 +9.3 27
3 Cracovia 13 8 2 3 +9 +0.3 26
4 Jagiellonia 12 8 1 3 +3 -1.4 25
5 Pogon Szczecin 13 7 1 5 +4 +3.7 22
6 Legia 12 5 4 3 +8 +7.8 19
7 Widzew Lodz 12 5 4 3 +2 -1.1 19
8 Piast Gliwice 13 5 4 4 +2 +0.2 19
9 GKS Katowice 12 4 4 4 +5 +1.5 16
10 Gornik Zabrze 12 4 3 5 +1 +2.1 15
11 Motor Lublin 13 4 3 6 -8 -4.0 15
12 Zaglebie 12 4 2 6 -8 -3.4 14
13 Radomiak Radom 12 4 0 8 -3 +0.3 12
14 Korona Kielce 12 3 3 6 -9 -5.0 12
15 Stal Mielec 12 3 2 7 -6 +0.7 11
16 Lechia Gdansk 13 2 4 7 -10 -9.7 10
17 Slask Wroclaw 12 1 6 5 -7 -0.3 9
18 Puszcza 13 1 5 7 -12 -8.7 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stal Mielec Zaglebie
Dawid Tkacz 🟨
18′
Krystian Getinger ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
31′
32′
🟨 Bartłomiej Kłudka
1–0 P. Wlazło
33′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Grzybek
↦ B. Kłudka
46′
🔁 P. Kusztal
↦ D. Mikołajewski
51′
M. Wdowiak 1–1
2–1 M. Senger
M. Guillaumier
57′
63′
🔁 M. Reguła
↦ V. Sejk
71′
🔁 T. Makowski
↦ A. Radwański
K. Knap 🔁
↦ D. Tkacz
74′
Piotr Wlazło 🟥
75′
R. Assayag 🔁
↦ S. Krykun
75′
B. Esselink 🔁
↦ Ł. Wolsztyński
79′
82′
🔁 H. Adamczyk
↦ I. Orlikowski
84′
M. Wdowiak 2–2
D. Dąbrowski
P. Bagalianis 🔁
↦ A. Jaunzems
92′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Stal Mielec

3-4-2-1
39 J. Mądrzyk G
18 P. Wlazło D
21 M. Matras D
15 M. Senger D
27 A. Jaunzems M
6 M. Guillaumier M
19 D. Tkacz M
23 K. Getinger M
10 M. Domański F
44 S. Krykun F
25 Ł. Wolsztyński F
Bench (9)
20 K. Knap
9 R. Assayag
3 B. Esselink
40 P. Bagalianis
96 R. Dadok
17 I. Shkurin
34 A. Cetnar
13 K. Jałocha
11 K. Wołkowicz

Coach: J. Niedźwiedź

Zaglebie

3-4-1-2
30 D. Hładun G
31 I. Orlikowski D
25 M. Nalepa D
5 A. Ławniczak D
17 M. Wdowiak M
8 D. Dąbrowski M
18 A. Radwański M
27 B. Kłudka M
7 M. Mróz F
80 D. Mikołajewski F
9 V. Sejk F
Bench (9)
13 M. Grzybek
23 P. Kusztal
44 M. Reguła
6 T. Makowski
15 H. Adamczyk
1 J. Burić
11 A. Woźniak
55 Luís Mata
2 B. Kopacz

Coach: M. Włodarski

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Kos · 65 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,31 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.