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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Stoke

U U U T T

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

42%

33%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,25 xG 0,64

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 6

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 19. · Derby 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	12	9	1	2	+14	+3.4	28
2	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+8	+3.5	24
3	Burnley	12	6	5	1	+12	+2.6	23
4	Leeds	12	6	5	1	+11	+11.9	23
5	West Brom	13	5	6	2	+6	+5.8	21
6	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.6	19
7	Watford	12	6	1	5	-3	-5.0	19
8	Norwich	12	4	6	2	+6	+2.2	18
9	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+2	+13.4	18
10	Millwall	12	4	4	4	+3	+6.5	16
11	Bristol City	12	3	7	2	-2	-0.0	16
12	Derby	12	4	3	5	+0	-2.4	15
13	Sheffield Weds	12	4	3	5	-5	-1.9	15
14	Oxford	12	3	5	4	+0	-4.2	14
15	Hull	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.5	14
16	Preston	12	3	5	4	-4	-2.0	14
17	Swansea	12	3	4	5	+0	-0.8	13
18	Coventry	12	3	3	6	-3	+3.0	12
19	Stoke	12	3	3	6	-4	-6.0	12
20	Luton	13	3	3	7	-6	+1.5	12
21	Cardiff	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.2	12
22	Plymouth	12	3	3	6	-9	-12.1	12
23	QPR	12	1	6	5	-8	-3.9	9
24	Portsmouth	12	1	5	6	-13	-9.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
2	Blackburn	6	5	1	0	+9	+2.6	16
3	Watford	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.0	16
4	Sheffield United	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.8	16
5	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	+7.1	13
6	Derby	6	4	1	1	+6	+0.7	13
7	Burnley	6	3	3	0	+7	+2.0	12
8	Oxford	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.7	12
9	Plymouth	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.6	11
10	Preston	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.0	11
11	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+2	+9.1	11
12	Norwich	6	2	4	0	+7	+2.7	10
13	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+4	+7.3	10
14	Bristol City	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.4	10
15	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+3	+3.9	9
16	Coventry	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.0	9
17	Cardiff	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.5	9
18	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+4.8	9
19	Stoke	6	2	2	2	+3	-0.8	8
20	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.9	8
21	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8
22	Hull	6	1	3	2	+0	+0.9	6
23	QPR	6	0	3	3	-5	+0.5	3
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+5	+1.0	12
2	Sunderland	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.9	12
3	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.6	11
4	Leeds	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.8	10
5	Sheffield United	6	2	2	2	+1	-2.3	8
6	Norwich	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
7	Hull	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.4	8
8	Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	+0	+4.3	7
9	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
10	Millwall	6	1	3	2	-1	-0.8	6
11	QPR	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.4	6
12	Bristol City	6	1	3	2	-4	+0.4	6
13	Portsmouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-6.2	5
14	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-3	-4.7	4
15	Luton	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.0	4
16	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-7	-5.1	4
17	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.3	3
18	Coventry	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.0	3
19	Preston	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.0	3
20	Cardiff	6	0	3	3	-9	-2.7	3
21	Watford	6	1	0	5	-10	-7.0	3
22	Oxford	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.5	2
23	Derby	6	0	2	4	-6	-3.0	2
24	Plymouth	6	0	1	5	-12	-11.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.