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Serie A

Referee: E Feliciani

Monza

T U S U T

0–1

Full-time

Milan

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 27%

10%

44%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

40%

78%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

56%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,18 xG 2,54

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 17. · Milan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.9	25
2	Juventus	11	5	6	0	+12	+8.1	21
3	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.3	21
4	Atalanta	10	6	1	3	+12	+10.1	19
5	Fiorentina	10	5	4	1	+12	+6.8	19
6	Lazio	10	6	1	3	+9	+7.4	19
7	Udinese	11	5	1	5	-2	-6.2	16
8	Bologna	10	3	6	1	+1	+0.1	15
9	Milan	9	4	2	3	+5	+6.2	14
10	Torino	10	4	2	4	+0	-4.0	14
11	Roma	10	3	4	3	-1	-1.4	13
12	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-2	-6.5	11
13	Parma	10	1	6	3	-2	-1.3	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-5.6	9
15	Como	10	2	3	5	-9	-2.1	9
16	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-9	-1.5	9
17	Monza	10	1	5	4	-3	-4.5	8
18	Venezia	10	2	2	6	-8	-4.3	8
19	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-16	-7.0	8
20	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-14	-8.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.7	15
2	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.4	13
3	Atalanta	5	4	0	1	+11	+6.6	12
4	Udinese	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.3	12
5	Fiorentina	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.6	11
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.8	10
7	Milan	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.6	10
8	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+4	+5.0	10
9	Roma	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.9	9
10	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.4	7
11	Bologna	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.6	7
12	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-8	-1.6	7
13	Venezia	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.9	6
14	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
15	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.6	5
16	Como	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.3	5
17	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-7	+0.2	5
18	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.2	3
19	Empoli	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.1	3
20	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	-2.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+8	+3.1	11
2	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.6	11
3	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.2	10
4	Fiorentina	5	2	2	1	+6	+1.1	8
5	Empoli	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.3	8
6	Bologna	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.5	8
7	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.5	7
8	Torino	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
9	Lazio	5	2	0	3	+2	+1.0	6
10	Monza	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
11	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Parma	5	0	4	1	-1	-1.9	4
13	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
14	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.8	4
15	Roma	5	0	4	1	-4	-2.3	4
16	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
17	Verona	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.0	3
18	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.7	3
19	Venezia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.2	2
20	Lecce	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.