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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Holstein Kiel

T U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Heidenheim

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

38%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,1

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

2,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,09 xG 1,23

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 17. · Heidenheim 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+22	+13.9	20
2	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+11	+2.9	20
3	Leverkusen	9	4	4	1	+5	+9.0	16
4	Union Berlin	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.3	15
5	Freiburg	8	5	0	3	+2	+4.4	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.0	14
7	Stuttgart	9	3	4	2	+1	+1.5	13
8	Dortmund	8	4	1	3	+1	+2.8	13
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	-2	+0.2	12
10	Heidenheim	8	3	1	4	+1	+1.0	10
11	M'gladbach	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.6	10
12	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-7	-0.9	10
13	Mainz	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.3	9
14	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-1	-2.0	8
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-4	-7.6	8
16	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.8	5
17	Holstein Kiel	8	0	2	6	-13	-6.5	2
18	Bochum	8	0	1	7	-15	-9.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.0	10
3	Augsburg	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.7	10
4	Union Berlin	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.7	10
5	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.4	9
6	Stuttgart	4	2	2	0	+5	+6.6	8
7	Leverkusen	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.8	8
8	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+6	+4.8	7
9	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
10	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-1	-3.2	6
11	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.0	6
12	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	+2.1	4
13	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.1	2
14	St Pauli	4	0	2	2	-5	+0.2	2
15	Werder Bremen	4	0	2	2	-6	-3.0	2
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.0	1
17	Bochum	4	0	1	3	-9	-5.1	1
18	Holstein Kiel	4	0	0	4	-11	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+16	+9.1	13
2	Werder Bremen	4	3	1	0	+4	+3.2	10
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+4	-0.1	10
4	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.3	8
5	Mainz	3	2	1	0	+4	-3.2	7
6	Wolfsburg	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.0	7
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.4	7
8	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.1	6
9	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.0	6
10	Union Berlin	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.0	5
11	Stuttgart	5	1	2	2	-4	-5.1	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
13	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-1	-5.0	3
14	Holstein Kiel	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.7	2
15	Hoffenheim	4	0	2	2	-3	-4.4	2
16	Dortmund	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.8	1
17	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-6	-4.5	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.