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Championship
Referee: L Smith
Cardiff
S U S S U
2–1
Full-time
Norwich
U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Norwich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,8
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 29%
25%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
25%
50%
Both score Ø 46%
25%
67%
Average goals
2,4
3,2
Scored
0,9
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,64 xG 1,73
43% Possession 57%
11 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Norwich 8.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sunderland 12 9 1 2 +14 +3.4 28
2 Sheffield United 13 8 3 2 +10 +5.1 27
3 Burnley 12 6 5 1 +12 +2.6 23
4 Leeds 12 6 5 1 +11 +11.9 23
5 West Brom 13 5 6 2 +6 +5.8 21
6 Blackburn 13 5 4 4 +2 -2.2 19
7 Watford 12 6 1 5 -3 -5.0 19
8 Norwich 12 4 6 2 +6 +2.2 18
9 Middlesbrough 12 5 3 4 +2 +13.4 18
10 Millwall 12 4 4 4 +3 +6.5 16
11 Swansea 13 4 4 5 +1 +0.4 16
12 Bristol City 12 3 7 2 -2 -0.0 16
13 Derby 13 4 3 6 -1 -4.0 15
14 Stoke 13 4 3 6 -3 -4.4 15
15 Sheffield Weds 12 4 3 5 -5 -1.9 15
16 Oxford 13 3 5 5 -1 -5.3 14
17 Hull 12 3 5 4 -2 -2.5 14
18 Preston 12 3 5 4 -4 -2.0 14
19 Coventry 12 3 3 6 -3 +3.0 12
20 Luton 13 3 3 7 -6 +1.5 12
21 Cardiff 12 3 3 6 -7 -3.2 12
22 Plymouth 12 3 3 6 -9 -12.1 12
23 QPR 12 1 6 5 -8 -3.9 9
24 Portsmouth 12 1 5 6 -13 -9.3 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cardiff Norwich
42′
🟨 Kellen Fisher
Half-time 0–0
Andy Rinomhota 🟨
46′
52′
Borja Sainz 0–1
C. Doyle
David Turnbull 🟨
54′
C. Robinson 🔁
↦ A. El Ghazi
62′
63′
🔁 B. Chrisene
↦ K. Fisher
63′
🔁 J. Stacey
↦ G. Forsyth
75′
🔁 A. Forson
↦ J. Sørensen
75′
🔁 G. Hanley
↦ O. Schwartau
C. Ashford 🔁
↦ C. Willock
76′
Callum O'Dowda 🟨
77′
82′
🟨 José Córdoba
J. Daland 🔁
↦ A. Rinomhota
83′
86′
🔁 K. Gordon
↦ A. Crnac
1–1 C. Robinson
C. O'Dowda
89′
2–1 C. O'Dowda
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-2-2-2
21 J. Alnwick G
35 A. Rinomhota D
4 D. Goutas D
12 C. Chambers D
11 C. O'Dowda D
3 M. Siopis M
14 D. Turnbull M
32 O. Tanner M
20 A. El Ghazi M
27 R. Colwill F
16 C. Willock F
Bench (9)
47 C. Robinson
45 C. Ashford
5 J. Daland
1 E. Horvath
23 J. Bagan
15 W. Kanga
46 M. Reindorf
19 Y. Meïté
2 W. Fish

Coach: O. Riza

Norwich

4-3-3
12 G. Long G
35 K. Fisher D
4 S. Duffy D
33 J. Córdoba D
6 C. Doyle D
41 G. Forsyth M
19 J. Sørensen M
11 E. Marcondes M
29 O. Schwartau F
17 A. Crnac F
7 Borja Sainz F
Bench (9)
14 B. Chrisene
3 J. Stacey
18 A. Forson
5 G. Hanley
21 K. Gordon
37 A. Mair
47 L. Mahovo
16 C. Fassnacht
42 T. Springett

Coach: J. Thorup

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,58
U
3,54
B
2,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,76
U2,5
2,06
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

L Smith · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.