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Serie A

Referee: G Collu

Bologna

T U U T S

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,2

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 21%

22%

20%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

44%

40%

Both score Ø 39%

67%

10%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,4

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,45 xG 0,63

72% Possession 28%

20 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 11. · Lecce 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.9	25
2	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.3	21
3	Atalanta	10	6	1	3	+12	+10.1	19
4	Fiorentina	10	5	4	1	+12	+6.8	19
5	Lazio	10	6	1	3	+9	+7.4	19
6	Juventus	10	4	6	0	+10	+7.5	18
7	Udinese	10	5	1	4	+0	-5.5	16
8	Milan	9	4	2	3	+5	+6.2	14
9	Torino	10	4	2	4	+0	-4.0	14
10	Roma	10	3	4	3	-1	-1.4	13
11	Bologna	9	2	6	1	+0	-0.7	12
12	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-2	-6.5	11
13	Parma	10	1	6	3	-2	-1.3	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-5.6	9
15	Como	10	2	3	5	-9	-2.1	9
16	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-9	-1.5	9
17	Monza	10	1	5	4	-3	-4.5	8
18	Venezia	10	2	2	6	-8	-4.3	8
19	Lecce	10	2	2	6	-15	-6.2	8
20	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-14	-8.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.7	15
2	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.4	13
3	Atalanta	5	4	0	1	+11	+6.6	12
4	Udinese	5	4	0	1	+4	-1.6	12
5	Fiorentina	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.6	11
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.8	10
7	Milan	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.6	10
8	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+4	+5.0	10
9	Roma	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.9	9
10	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.4	7
11	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-8	-1.6	7
12	Venezia	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.9	6
13	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.6	5
15	Como	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.3	5
16	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-7	+0.2	5
17	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
18	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.2	3
19	Empoli	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.1	3
20	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	-2.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.6	11
2	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.2	10
3	Fiorentina	5	2	2	1	+6	+1.1	8
4	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.4	8
5	Empoli	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.3	8
6	Bologna	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.5	8
7	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.5	7
8	Torino	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
9	Lazio	5	2	0	3	+2	+1.0	6
10	Monza	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
11	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Parma	5	0	4	1	-1	-1.9	4
13	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
14	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.8	4
15	Roma	5	0	4	1	-4	-2.3	4
16	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
17	Verona	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.0	3
18	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.7	3
19	Venezia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.2	2
20	Lecce	5	0	1	4	-7	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.