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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Sylwestrzak

Lech Poznan

S U S T T

1–1

Full-time

Gornik Zabrze

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Gornik Zabrze

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 54%

75%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,78 xG 1,28

71% Possession 29%

20 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

14 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lech Poznan 11. · Gornik Zabrze 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.0	12
2	Legia	4	3	1	0	+7	+0.9	10
3	Slask Wroclaw	6	3	1	2	+3	-2.5	10
4	Cracovia	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.5	10
5	Radomiak Radom	7	3	1	3	+0	-0.6	10
6	Zaglebie	6	3	1	2	+0	-0.6	10
7	Warta Poznan	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.6	9
8	Stal Mielec	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.6	9
9	Piast Gliwice	7	1	5	1	+0	+7.6	8
10	Rakow	4	2	1	1	+4	+3.2	7
11	Lech Poznan	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
12	Widzew Lodz	6	2	1	3	-2	-0.4	7
13	Puszcza	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.7	7
14	Ruch Chorzow	7	1	3	3	-3	-1.7	6
15	Pogon Szczecin	5	2	0	3	-3	+3.7	6
16	LKS Lodz	7	2	0	5	-7	–	6
17	Korona Kielce	6	1	2	3	-1	+0.0	5
18	Gornik Zabrze	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	3	3	0	0	+7	+4.7	9
2	Legia	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.9	9
3	Stal Mielec	4	2	2	0	+4	-1.2	8
4	Rakow	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.2	7
5	Zaglebie	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.2	7
6	Puszcza	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.1	7
7	Widzew Lodz	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.5	6
8	LKS Lodz	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
9	Warta Poznan	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.4	5
10	Cracovia	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
11	Korona Kielce	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
12	Ruch Chorzow	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
13	Radomiak Radom	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.9	4
14	Piast Gliwice	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.7	4
15	Lech Poznan	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
16	Slask Wroclaw	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
17	Pogon Szczecin	3	1	0	2	-3	+3.6	3
18	Gornik Zabrze	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.0	7
2	Radomiak Radom	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.3	6
3	Cracovia	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
4	Warta Poznan	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.2	4
5	Piast Gliwice	4	0	4	0	+0	+3.9	4
6	Lech Poznan	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.0	4
7	Pogon Szczecin	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
8	Zaglebie	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
9	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
10	Gornik Zabrze	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.3	3
11	Ruch Chorzow	4	0	2	2	-4	-1.5	2
12	Legia	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
13	Widzew Lodz	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.8	1
14	Korona Kielce	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.4	1
15	Stal Mielec	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.4	1
16	Rakow	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Puszcza	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.8	0
18	LKS Lodz	4	0	0	4	-7	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.