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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Benfica

U S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,2

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,65 xG 1,08

70% Possession 30%

20 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Benfica 6. · Guimaraes 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Guimaraes	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+3.0	9
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+3	+3.1	9
4	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
5	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
6	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+2	+4.2	6
7	Casa Pia	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
8	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.8	5
9	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
10	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.0	4
11	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
12	Gil Vicente	4	1	0	3	+2	-1.7	3
13	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
14	Farense	4	1	0	3	+0	-2.5	3
15	Estoril	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
16	Portimonense	4	0	2	2	-8	-3.8	2
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
3	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
4	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
5	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
6	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
8	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
9	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.6	3
10	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
12	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
13	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
14	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
15	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
16	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
17	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
18	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
2	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
3	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
7	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
8	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
9	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
13	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
16	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.