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Bundesliga
Referee: D Aytekin
M'gladbach
U S S U T
1–2
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
83%
100%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
5,2
4,0
Scored
2,8
3,0
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
5,5
4,0
Scored
2,0
3,5
Conceded
3,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,35 xG 2,37
35% Possession 65%
8 Shots 25
3 Shots on target 9
0 Blocked shots 10
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 15
0 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 20
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match M'gladbach 15. · Bayern Munich 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leverkusen 3 3 0 0 +8 +3.8 9
2 Stuttgart 3 2 0 1 +6 +2.4 6
3 Union Berlin 2 2 0 0 +6 -0.9 6
4 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +6 +4.5 6
5 Hoffenheim 3 2 0 1 +2 -0.2 6
6 Wolfsburg 3 2 0 1 +1 +2.2 6
7 Freiburg 3 2 0 1 -3 +1.8 6
8 Dortmund 3 1 2 0 +1 +2.4 5
9 Ein Frankfurt 2 1 1 0 +1 +0.8 4
10 RB Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +3 +0.8 3
11 Werder Bremen 3 1 0 2 -1 -1.5 3
12 Augsburg 3 0 2 1 -2 -0.8 2
13 Bochum 3 0 2 1 -5 -3.4 2
14 Heidenheim 3 0 1 2 -3 -2.6 1
15 M'gladbach 2 0 1 1 -3 -2.1 1
16 Mainz 3 0 1 2 -7 -1.7 1
17 FC Koln 2 0 0 2 -2 -2.5 0
18 Darmstadt 3 0 0 3 -8 -2.9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

M'gladbach Bayern Munich
22′
🟨 Noussair Mazraoui
1–0 K. Itakura
M. Wöber
30′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 K. Laimer
↦ N. Mazraoui
58′
L. Sané 1–1
J. Kimmich
J. Siebatcheu 🔁
↦ T. Čvančara
59′
60′
🟨 Kingsley Coman
69′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ T. Müller
69′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ K. Coman
T. Jantschke 🔁
↦ N. Ngoumou
73′
L. Ullrich 🔁
↦ M. Wöber
73′
80′
🔁 M. Tel
↦ L. Goretzka
N. Elvedi 🔁
↦ J. Scally
83′
F. Honorat 🔁
↦ A. Pléa
83′
87′
M. Tel 1–2
J. Kimmich
95′
🔁 M. de Ligt
↦ H. Kane
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

M'gladbach

4-5-1
33 M. Nicolas G
29 J. Scally D
5 M. Friedrich D
3 K. Itakura D
39 M. Wöber D
19 N. Ngoumou M
27 R. Reitz M
8 J. Weigl M
10 F. Neuhaus M
14 A. Pléa M
31 T. Čvančara F
Bench (9)
13 J. Siebatcheu
24 T. Jantschke
26 L. Ullrich
30 N. Elvedi
9 F. Honorat
25 R. Hack
28 G. Ranos
38 Y. Borges Sanches
21 T. Sippel

Coach: G. Seoane

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
26 S. Ulreich G
40 N. Mazraoui D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
19 A. Davies D
8 L. Goretzka M
6 J. Kimmich M
10 L. Sané M
25 T. Müller M
11 K. Coman M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
27 K. Laimer
13 E. Choupo-Moting
7 S. Gnabry
39 M. Tel
4 M. de Ligt
18 Daniel Peretz
41 F. Krätzig
45 A. Pavlović
20 B. Sarr

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
8,28
U
6,34
B ✓
1,31
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,24
U2,5
4,09
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Aytekin · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.