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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Swansea

S T U T T

1–2

Full-time

Bristol City

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,44 xG 2,30

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 8

0 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 20. · Bristol City 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	4	4	0	0	+4	+0.4	12
2	Norwich	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.5	10
3	Birmingham	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.0	10
4	Southampton	4	3	1	0	+3	+3.1	10
5	Preston	4	3	1	0	+3	-0.5	10
6	Ipswich	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.5	9
7	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.7	7
8	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.4	7
9	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.2	7
10	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.2	6
11	Millwall	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.9	6
12	Coventry	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.7	5
13	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
14	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	-1	+1.8	5
15	Watford	4	1	1	2	+2	+3.4	4
16	Plymouth	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
17	Cardiff	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
18	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.5	4
19	QPR	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
20	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.0	2
21	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-5	-5.0	1
22	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-6	+1.7	1
23	Huddersfield	4	0	1	3	-7	-2.8	1
24	Sheffield Weds	4	0	0	4	-5	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	-1.9	6
3	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.5	6
4	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
5	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
6	Birmingham	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.0	6
7	Watford	3	1	1	1	+3	+3.7	4
8	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.2	4
9	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
10	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
11	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
12	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
13	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
14	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
15	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
17	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
18	Swansea	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.5	2
19	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.7	1
20	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
21	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
22	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
23	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.0	6
4	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+4	+0.0	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.0	4
6	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
7	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.6	4
8	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
9	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
10	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.7	3
11	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
12	QPR	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.8	3
13	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
14	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
16	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
17	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
18	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
19	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.5	0
21	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0
22	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.2	0
24	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-5	+1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.