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Allsvenskan

Referee: M Al Hakim

Varnamo

S T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Elfsborg

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo Elfsborg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 55%

38%

71%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

38%

52%

Both score Ø 38%

33%

43%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,09 xG 0,74

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 7

4 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Varnamo 10. · Elfsborg 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	21	15	3	3	+29	+5.5	48
2	Malmo FF	21	14	3	4	+27	+4.7	45
3	Hacken	21	14	2	5	+26	+1.3	44
4	Djurgarden	21	11	4	6	+6	+1.4	37
5	Norrkoping	21	10	4	7	+9	+6.3	34
6	Hammarby	21	9	5	7	+1	+1.7	32
7	Kalmar	21	8	6	7	-5	-4.5	30
8	Halmstad	22	8	5	9	-14	-3.7	29
9	Mjallby	21	8	4	9	-4	-5.3	28
10	Varnamo	21	8	2	11	-2	+2.1	26
11	Brommapojkarna	21	8	2	11	-7	+0.6	26
12	Goteborg	21	5	7	9	-3	-3.7	22
13	AIK	21	5	7	9	-4	+2.5	22
14	Sirius	22	5	5	12	-8	+1.8	20
15	Degerfors	21	6	2	13	-26	-6.0	20
16	Varberg	21	2	5	14	-25	-4.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hacken	11	10	0	1	+23	+0.5	30
2	Djurgarden	11	9	1	1	+12	+1.7	28
3	Malmo FF	11	8	2	1	+20	+2.1	26
4	Elfsborg	11	8	2	1	+19	+1.1	26
5	Hammarby	9	7	1	1	+8	+1.5	22
6	Kalmar	10	5	3	2	+1	-2.1	18
7	Norrkoping	10	5	2	3	+5	+1.3	17
8	Goteborg	11	4	3	4	+7	-1.8	15
9	Halmstad	11	4	3	4	-5	-2.3	15
10	Degerfors	11	4	2	5	-3	+0.4	14
11	Brommapojkarna	11	4	1	6	-2	-0.1	13
12	Mjallby	11	3	3	5	-2	-5.3	12
13	AIK	10	2	5	3	+0	+1.6	11
14	Sirius	11	3	1	7	-3	+2.8	10
15	Varnamo	10	3	1	6	-3	+1.3	10
16	Varberg	10	0	3	7	-18	-0.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	10	7	1	2	+10	+4.3	22
2	Malmo FF	10	6	1	3	+7	+2.6	19
3	Norrkoping	11	5	2	4	+4	+5.0	17
4	Varnamo	11	5	1	5	+1	+0.9	16
5	Mjallby	10	5	1	4	-2	-0.0	16
6	Hacken	10	4	2	4	+3	+0.7	14
7	Halmstad	11	4	2	5	-9	-1.4	14
8	Brommapojkarna	10	4	1	5	-5	+0.7	13
9	Kalmar	11	3	3	5	-6	-2.4	12
10	AIK	11	3	2	6	-4	+0.9	11
11	Sirius	11	2	4	5	-5	-1.0	10
12	Hammarby	12	2	4	6	-7	+0.2	10
13	Djurgarden	10	2	3	5	-6	-0.3	9
14	Varberg	11	2	2	7	-7	-4.1	8
15	Goteborg	10	1	4	5	-10	-1.8	7
16	Degerfors	10	2	0	8	-23	-6.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.