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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Coventry

T T S U U

3–3

Full-time

Watford

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Coventry Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,11 xG 1,27

53% Possession 47%

16 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Coventry 14. · Watford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	4	4	0	0	+4	+0.4	12
2	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+4	+3.3	11
3	Norwich	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.5	10
4	Preston	4	3	1	0	+3	-0.5	10
5	Southampton	5	3	1	1	-2	+2.0	10
6	Ipswich	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.5	9
7	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.7	8
8	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	+4	+2.6	7
9	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.7	7
10	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.4	7
11	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.2	7
12	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
13	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.2	6
14	Coventry	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.7	5
15	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
16	Watford	4	1	1	2	+2	+3.4	4
17	Plymouth	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
18	Cardiff	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
19	QPR	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
20	Swansea	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.1	2
21	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-5	-5.0	1
22	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-6	+1.7	1
23	Huddersfield	4	0	1	3	-7	-2.8	1
24	Sheffield Weds	4	0	0	4	-5	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
2	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
3	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
4	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	-1.9	6
5	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.5	6
6	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
7	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
8	Watford	3	1	1	1	+3	+3.7	4
9	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.2	4
10	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
11	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
12	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
13	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
14	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
15	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
17	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
18	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
19	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.7	1
20	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
21	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
22	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
23	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.0	6
4	Southampton	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.5	6
5	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+4	+0.0	4
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.0	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
8	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
9	Millwall	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.1	4
10	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
11	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.7	3
12	QPR	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.8	3
13	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
14	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
16	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
17	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
18	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
19	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.5	0
21	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0
22	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.2	0
24	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-5	+1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.