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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Heracles

T U T T S

3–1

Full-time

Excelsior

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

5,0

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

2,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,35 xG 0,45

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Heracles 14. · Excelsior 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+2.0	9
2	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.1	8
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
4	Twente	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.0	6
5	Heerenveen	4	2	0	2	+1	-3.2	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.4	6
7	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.7	6
8	Feyenoord	3	1	2	0	+5	+4.6	5
9	Excelsior	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.7	5
10	For Sittard	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
11	Ajax	2	1	1	0	+3	+4.3	4
12	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	+1	-1.1	4
13	Vitesse	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.4	3
14	Heracles	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.7	3
15	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.2	0
16	Utrecht	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.4	0
17	Almere City	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.6	0
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-11	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.2	6
2	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+5	+3.4	4
3	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
4	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
5	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
6	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
7	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
8	Heracles	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
9	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
10	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
11	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
12	Excelsior	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.2	2
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
15	Vitesse	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
16	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
17	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
18	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-6	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.1	6
2	Sparta Rotterdam	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
3	Twente	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
5	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.5	3
6	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
7	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
8	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
9	For Sittard	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
10	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
11	Ajax	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
12	Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
13	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
14	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
15	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
16	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0
17	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.2	0
18	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.