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Eredivisie

Referee: S Gözübüyük

Sparta Rotterdam

S T U T T

4–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 26%

33%

19%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

48%

76%

Both score Ø 64%

52%

76%

Average goals

2,6

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,44 xG 1,36

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 10. · Excelsior 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	22	20	2	0	+60	+49.0	62
2	Feyenoord	21	15	4	2	+38	+42.7	49
3	Twente	21	13	5	3	+21	+11.4	44
4	AZ Alkmaar	21	10	6	5	+19	+12.3	36
5	Ajax	21	10	5	6	+10	+8.4	35
6	Go Ahead Eagles	20	8	6	6	+6	-4.9	30
7	Nijmegen	20	7	7	6	+4	-10.3	28
8	Zwolle	21	7	6	8	-2	-7.1	27
9	Utrecht	21	6	8	7	-3	-6.4	26
10	Sparta Rotterdam	21	7	5	9	-4	-6.7	26
11	Heerenveen	21	7	4	10	-8	-4.2	25
12	For Sittard	21	6	6	9	-16	-0.3	24
13	Almere City	21	6	6	9	-16	-10.3	24
14	Heracles	22	6	4	12	-23	-18.1	22
15	Excelsior	21	4	9	8	-8	-9.0	21
16	Waalwijk	21	5	3	13	-18	-8.0	18
17	Volendam	21	3	3	15	-30	-18.7	12
18	Vitesse	21	3	3	15	-30	-19.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+28	+29.5	33
2	Twente	10	8	1	1	+10	+8.4	25
3	Feyenoord	11	7	3	1	+20	+21.5	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+13	+12.1	20
5	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+12	+8.1	20
6	Go Ahead Eagles	11	5	3	3	+10	+5.0	18
7	For Sittard	10	5	3	2	+4	+8.5	18
8	Nijmegen	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.9	17
9	Heerenveen	10	5	2	3	+6	+7.7	17
10	Utrecht	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.9	14
11	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
12	Almere City	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.7	13
13	Excelsior	11	2	6	3	-3	-0.5	12
14	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	+1.3	11
15	Waalwijk	11	3	2	6	-6	-4.0	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-7	+0.1	9
17	Volendam	10	2	1	7	-14	-3.5	7
18	Vitesse	10	1	3	6	-9	-6.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	2	0	+32	+19.5	29
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+18	+21.1	25
3	Twente	11	5	4	2	+11	+3.0	19
4	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	2	4	+3	-6.8	17
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	4	2	+6	+0.2	16
6	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	+3	-8.4	16
7	Ajax	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.2	15
8	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-2	-4.5	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	3	3	-4	-10.0	12
10	Nijmegen	10	2	5	3	-4	-14.2	11
11	Almere City	10	3	2	5	-10	-6.6	11
12	Excelsior	10	2	3	5	-5	-8.5	9
13	Heracles	11	2	2	7	-13	-11.4	8
14	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
15	Waalwijk	10	2	1	7	-12	-3.9	7
16	For Sittard	11	1	3	7	-20	-8.7	6
17	Vitesse	11	2	0	9	-21	-13.1	6
18	Volendam	11	1	2	8	-16	-15.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.