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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Excelsior

U U T U S

2–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,50 xG 0,44

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 7. · Sparta Rotterdam 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+21	+16.1	21
2	Twente	7	6	0	1	+10	+4.9	18
3	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	+20	+16.2	17
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+13	+6.4	16
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.4	11
6	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	1	3	-2	-7.9	10
7	Excelsior	6	2	3	1	+2	-2.6	9
8	For Sittard	6	2	3	1	+0	+2.2	9
9	Heracles	6	2	2	2	-2	-4.8	8
10	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-2	-6.1	7
11	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-4	+2.5	7
12	Vitesse	7	2	0	5	-5	-3.8	6
13	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-8	-6.2	6
14	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-8	+1.0	6
15	Ajax	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.1	5
16	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-12	-5.4	4
17	Utrecht	7	1	0	6	-12	-6.1	3
18	Volendam	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+11	+11.9	12
2	Twente	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.0	10
4	Go Ahead Eagles	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.2	9
5	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.3	7
6	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
7	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.6	6
8	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
9	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.4	5
10	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-3	+2.4	4
11	Excelsior	3	0	3	0	+0	-2.3	3
12	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
13	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.8	3
14	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-5	-0.5	3
15	Volendam	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
16	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
17	Almere City	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.2	0
18	Utrecht	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+10	+4.2	9
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
3	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+8	+7.2	7
4	Twente	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.3	6
5	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.3	6
6	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.9	6
7	Vitesse	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.9	6
8	Almere City	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.3	4
9	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
10	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
11	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.6	3
12	Heerenveen	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.3	3
13	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
14	Heracles	3	0	2	1	-3	-5.2	2
15	For Sittard	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.7	2
16	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.8	1
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-9	-10.1	1
18	Volendam	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.