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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

AZ Alkmaar

U T T U S

2–0

Full-time

Ajax

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 48%

50%

45%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

64%

86%

Both score Ø 69%

55%

82%

Average goals

2,9

4,2

Scored

1,9

2,3

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,51 xG 0,93

43% Possession 57%

8 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	21	2	0	+66	+52.6	65
2	Feyenoord	23	17	4	2	+41	+45.6	55
3	Twente	23	14	5	4	+23	+13.9	47
4	AZ Alkmaar	22	11	6	5	+20	+12.4	39
5	Ajax	22	10	6	6	+10	+7.6	36
6	Go Ahead Eagles	22	9	6	7	+5	-5.3	33
7	Nijmegen	22	8	8	6	+6	-9.1	32
8	Utrecht	23	8	8	7	-1	-7.0	32
9	Sparta Rotterdam	23	8	5	10	-4	-6.1	29
10	Zwolle	23	7	6	10	-9	-9.7	27
11	For Sittard	23	7	6	10	-16	+0.0	27
12	Almere City	23	7	6	10	-17	-10.8	27
13	Heerenveen	22	7	4	11	-10	-4.7	25
14	Heracles	23	6	4	13	-24	-19.0	22
15	Excelsior	23	4	9	10	-11	-9.7	21
16	Waalwijk	23	5	3	15	-20	-11.8	18
17	Vitesse	23	4	4	15	-29	-17.5	16
18	Volendam	22	3	4	15	-30	-21.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+28	+29.5	33
2	Twente	12	9	1	2	+12	+10.9	28
3	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+21	+24.9	27
4	Ajax	11	6	3	2	+12	+7.3	21
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+13	+12.1	20
6	Nijmegen	11	6	2	3	+10	+4.3	20
7	Go Ahead Eagles	11	5	3	3	+10	+5.0	18
8	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+3	+8.4	18
9	Heerenveen	11	5	2	4	+4	+7.1	17
10	Utrecht	12	4	5	3	+0	-1.0	17
11	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
12	Almere City	12	3	4	5	-8	-3.2	13
13	Excelsior	12	2	6	4	-4	-0.2	12
14	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	-5	+1.1	12
15	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.4	11
16	Zwolle	12	3	2	7	-12	-1.3	11
17	Vitesse	11	1	4	6	-9	-4.1	7
18	Volendam	10	2	1	7	-14	-3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	2	0	+38	+23.1	32
2	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+20	+20.7	28
3	Twente	11	5	4	2	+11	+3.0	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.3	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	2	5	+1	-7.2	17
6	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	+3	-8.4	16
7	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-1	-6.0	15
8	Ajax	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	3	4	-5	-10.3	15
10	Almere City	11	4	2	5	-9	-7.6	14
11	Nijmegen	11	2	6	3	-4	-13.4	12
12	Excelsior	11	2	3	6	-7	-9.6	9
13	For Sittard	12	2	3	7	-19	-8.3	9
14	Vitesse	12	3	0	9	-20	-13.4	9
15	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
16	Heracles	12	2	2	8	-14	-12.3	8
17	Waalwijk	11	2	1	8	-13	-7.3	7
18	Volendam	12	1	3	8	-16	-17.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.