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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

Ajax

U T U T U

1–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/7 matches

Win Ø 53%

20%

86%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

80%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

43%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,9

Conceded

2,0

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+2,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,23 xG 1,70

54% Possession 46%

6 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 4

7 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 16. · AZ Alkmaar 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+21	+16.1	21
2	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	+22	+17.6	20
3	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	+17	+8.1	19
4	Twente	7	6	0	1	+10	+4.9	18
5	Excelsior	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.9	13
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	1	3	+2	-8.0	13
7	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	2	2	+1	-0.6	11
8	Heracles	8	3	2	3	-5	-3.8	11
9	For Sittard	7	2	3	2	-4	+0.5	9
10	Nijmegen	8	2	2	4	-2	-7.2	8
11	Vitesse	8	2	1	5	-5	-3.4	7
12	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-7	+0.1	7
13	Heerenveen	8	2	1	5	-8	-5.1	7
14	Almere City	8	2	1	5	-11	-3.7	7
15	Waalwijk	7	2	0	5	-9	-0.7	6
16	Ajax	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.1	5
17	Volendam	7	1	1	5	-9	-3.6	4
18	Utrecht	8	1	0	7	-13	-8.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	4	4	0	0	+11	+2.1	12
2	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+11	+11.9	12
3	Twente	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.6	12
4	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.0	10
5	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+10	+7.0	10
6	Heracles	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.3	9
7	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
8	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.6	6
9	Excelsior	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.2	6
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.4	5
11	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.1	4
12	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.9	4
14	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
15	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-5	-0.5	3
16	Almere City	4	1	0	3	-7	-2.5	3
17	Vitesse	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
18	Utrecht	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+10	+8.7	10
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+10	+4.2	9
3	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
4	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.7	7
5	Twente	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.3	6
6	Vitesse	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.9	6
7	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.0	6
8	Almere City	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.3	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.9	3
10	Waalwijk	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.2	3
11	Heerenveen	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.3	3
12	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-5	-3.6	3
13	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
14	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
15	Heracles	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.1	2
16	For Sittard	4	0	2	2	-7	-3.4	2
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-9	-10.1	1
18	Volendam	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.