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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Ajax

S U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Willem II

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 7/9 matches

Win Ø 52%

71%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

57%

33%

Both score Ø 51%

57%

44%

Average goals

3,4

2,2

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,87 xG 0,47

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Willem II 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+29	+15.7	30
2	Utrecht	9	7	1	1	+5	-2.2	22
3	Feyenoord	9	5	4	0	+13	+9.5	19
4	Twente	10	5	3	2	+12	+12.8	18
5	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+10	+10.7	16
6	NAC Breda	10	5	0	5	-4	-3.0	15
7	For Sittard	10	4	2	4	-4	+0.1	14
8	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.7	13
9	Go Ahead Eagles	9	4	1	4	-4	+5.6	13
10	Willem II	9	3	3	3	+2	-6.3	12
11	Heerenveen	9	3	2	4	+0	+0.5	11
12	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	5	3	-2	+0.3	11
13	Nijmegen	10	3	1	6	+0	-2.7	10
14	Groningen	10	2	3	5	-2	-5.8	9
15	Heracles	10	2	3	5	-12	-10.0	9
16	Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-10	-8.9	8
17	Almere City	10	1	3	6	-16	-6.5	6
18	Waalwijk	10	0	1	9	-20	-13.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	+7.7	15
2	NAC Breda	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.4	12
3	Utrecht	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.5	12
4	Twente	5	3	2	0	+8	+10.3	11
5	Heerenveen	5	3	2	0	+7	+5.7	11
6	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.0	9
7	For Sittard	5	3	0	2	+0	+2.5	9
8	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
9	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+2	+0.4	7
10	Willem II	5	2	1	2	+2	-2.1	7
11	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-1	+4.9	7
12	Zwolle	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.8	6
13	Groningen	5	1	2	2	+1	-2.6	5
14	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.3	5
15	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	4	1	-1	+2.6	4
16	Almere City	6	1	1	4	-12	-1.8	4
17	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
18	Waalwijk	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.0	15
2	Feyenoord	6	3	3	0	+10	+5.6	12
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.6	10
4	Utrecht	4	3	1	0	+3	-2.6	10
5	Twente	5	2	1	2	+4	+2.5	7
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.6	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.3	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
9	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
10	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.3	5
11	Groningen	5	1	1	3	-3	-3.1	4
12	Heracles	5	1	1	3	-10	-7.6	4
13	Nijmegen	5	1	0	4	-2	-3.1	3
14	NAC Breda	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.5	3
15	Almere City	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.7	2
16	Zwolle	5	0	2	3	-8	-8.1	2
17	Heerenveen	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
18	Waalwijk	5	0	0	5	-13	-8.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.