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Europa League
Referee: N Walsh
Qarabag
S T T T T
0–3
Full-time
Ajax
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Qarabag Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
0%
75%
Points per game
0,0
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 44%
50%
38%
Average goals
3,0
2,6
Scored
0,5
2,1
Conceded
2,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,09 xG 2,56
44% Possession 56%
2 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 10
1 Blocked shots 3
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 2
1 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 21
6 Yellow cards 2
2 Red cards 0

Match report

Qarabag Ajax
Júlio Romão 🟥
15′
Elvin Cafarquliyev 🟨
16′
20′
🟨 Kenneth Taylor
Abbas Hüseynov 🟨
22′
36′
⚽ K. Taylor 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Kian Fitz-Jim
Yassine Benzia 🟨
50′
59′
🔁 A. Kaplan
↦ D. Rugani
59′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ K. Taylor
59′
🔁 B. van den Boomen
↦ K. Fitz-Jim
Kevin Medina 🟨
73′
74′
⚽ W. Weghorst 0–2
T. Bayramov 🔁
↦ Leandro Andrade
75′
77′
⚽ C. Akpom 0–3
M. Godts
78′
🔁 A. Gaaei
↦ C. Rasmussen
Elvin Cafarquliyev 🟨
79′
Elvin Cafarquliyev 🟥
79′
Marko Janković 🟨
80′
Patrick Andrade 🔁
↦ Y. Benzia
81′
E. Addai 🔁
↦ Juninho
82′
A. Isaev 🔁
↦ M. Janković
84′
B. Mustafazadə 🔁
↦ A. Zoubir
84′
86′
🔁 J. Mokio
↦ W. Weghorst
Full-time 0–3

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Walsh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.