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KNVB Beker
Referee: D Higler
Ajax
U S S S T
1–1
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,8
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
This season — KNVB Beker · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 63%
25%
100%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
0,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%
13 Shots 12
0 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 17
5 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · PSV Eindhoven 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Spakenburg 6 4 1 1 +5 13
2 Ajax 4 4 0 0 +7 12
3 PSV Eindhoven 4 4 0 0 +6 12
4 De Graafschap 4 3 0 1 +5 9
5 Heerenveen 4 3 0 1 +4 9
6 Utrecht 4 3 0 1 +3 9
7 Den Haag 4 3 0 1 +2 9
8 De Treffers 4 3 0 1 +2 9
9 Nijmegen 3 2 1 0 +5 7
10 Katwijk 3 2 1 0 +4 7
11 Feyenoord 4 2 1 1 +2 7
12 Blauw Geel 3 2 0 1 +5 6
13 Hercules 3 2 0 1 +4 6
14 ADO '20 3 2 0 1 +3 6
15 Go Ahead Eagles 3 2 0 1 +2 6
16 HV & CV Quick 3 2 0 1 +1 6
17 NAC Breda 3 2 0 1 +1 6
18 FC Emmen 3 2 0 1 +0 6
19 URK 3 2 0 1 +0 6
20 Sportlust '46 3 2 0 1 -1 6
21 Staphorst 3 1 1 1 +1 4
22 Hoek 3 1 1 1 +0 4
23 Kozakken Boys 3 1 1 1 -1 4
24 OFC Oostzaan 2 1 0 1 +2 3
25 Groningen 2 1 0 1 +2 3
26 Volendam 2 1 0 1 +2 3
27 AZ Alkmaar 2 1 0 1 +2 3
28 DVS 33 Ermelo 2 1 0 1 +2 3
29 Cambuur 2 1 0 1 +2 3
30 Excelsior 2 1 0 1 +1 3
31 Sparta Rotterdam 2 1 0 1 +1 3
32 Twente 2 1 0 1 +1 3
33 VVV Venlo 2 1 0 1 +0 3
34 Excelsior '31 2 1 0 1 +0 3
35 Den Bosch 2 1 0 1 +0 3
36 Groene Ster 2 1 0 1 +0 3
37 Dongen 2 1 0 1 +0 3
38 FC Eindhoven 2 1 0 1 +0 3
39 TEC 2 1 0 1 +0 3
40 Telstar 2 1 0 1 -1 3
41 Zwolle 2 1 0 1 -1 3
42 GVVV Veenendaal 2 1 0 1 -1 3
43 Almere City 2 1 0 1 -2 3
44 Rijnvogels 2 1 0 1 -2 3
45 AFC Amsterdam 1 0 1 0 +0 1
46 Roda 1 0 1 0 +0 1
47 Vitesse 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Hsc 21 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 SVV Scheveningen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Ijsselmeervogels 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 GVV Unitas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Heracles 2 0 1 1 -1 1
53 RKAV Volendam 2 0 1 1 -2 1
54 DEM 2 0 1 1 -3 1
55 Harkemase Boys 2 0 1 1 -4 1
56 VVOG 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 For Sittard 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 OJC Rosmalen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 ASWH 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Quick Boys 1 0 0 1 -1 0
61 Gemert 1 0 0 1 -1 0
62 OSS '20 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 SteDoCo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Excelsior Maassluis 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Willem II 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Dovo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 ACV 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 UNA 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 Sparta Nijkerk 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Koninklijke HFC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 HHC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Helmond Sport 1 0 0 1 -2 0
73 JOS Watergraafsmeer 1 0 0 1 -2 0
74 Noordwijk 1 0 0 1 -2 0
75 Rijnsburgse Boys 1 0 0 1 -2 0
76 FC OSS 1 0 0 1 -2 0
77 Barendrecht 1 0 0 1 -2 0
78 Waalwijk 1 0 0 1 -2 0
79 Dordrecht 1 0 0 1 -3 0
80 TOGB 1 0 0 1 -3 0
81 Vvsb 1 0 0 1 -3 0
82 FC Lisse 1 0 0 1 -3 0
83 UDI '19 1 0 0 1 -4 0
84 MVV 1 0 0 1 -4 0
85 Ter Leede 1 0 0 1 -4 0
86 Baronie 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax PSV Eindhoven
Jorge Sánchez 🟨
30′
Edson Álvarez 🟨
37′
0–1 J. Branthwaite
own goal
42′
43′
🟨 Luuk de Jong
Steven Bergwijn 🟨
45′
45′
🟨 Jordan Teze
Half-time 0–1
D. Rensch 🔁
↦ J. Sánchez
46′
59′
🔁 A. El Ghazi
↦ G. Til
59′
🔁 T. Hazard
↦ J. Bakayoko
Devyne Rensch 🟨
60′
67′
T. Hazard 0–2
X. Simons
C. Bassey 🔁
↦ F. Grillitsch
68′
O. Wijndal 🔁
↦ J. Hato
75′
Francisco Conceição 🔁
↦ S. Berghuis
75′
76′
🔁 P. Mwene
↦ J. Teze
79′
🟨 André Ramalho
92′
🟨 Xavi Simons
92′
🟨 Anwar El Ghazi
Owen Wijndal 🟨
95′
98′
🔁 É. Gutiérrez
↦ X. Simons
105′
🔁 Fábio Silva
↦ L. de Jong
S. Vos 🔁
↦ D. Klaassen
116′
M. Godts 🔁
↦ S. Bergwijn
116′
121′
🟨 Patrick van Aanholt
1–2 D. Tadić
121′
122′
T. Hazard 1–3
B. Brobbey
penalty missed
123′
124′
André Ramalho
penalty missed
J. Timber
penalty missed
125′
126′
I. Sangaré
penalty missed
2–3 M. Godts
127′
128′
A. El Ghazi 2–4
E. Álvarez
penalty missed
129′
130′
Fábio Silva 2–5
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

Ajax

4-2-3-1
12 G. Rulli G
19 J. Sánchez D
2 J. Timber D
4 E. Álvarez D
57 J. Hato D
21 F. Grillitsch M
6 D. Klaassen M
23 S. Berghuis M
10 D. Tadić M
7 S. Bergwijn M
9 B. Brobbey F
Bench (12)
15 D. Rensch
3 C. Bassey
5 O. Wijndal
35 Francisco Conceição
39 M. Godts
41 S. Vos
1 M. Stekelenburg
38 K. Hlynsson
22 R. Pasveer
25 Y. Baas
18 L. Lucca
26 Y. Regeer

Coach: J. Heitinga

PSV Eindhoven

4-4-2
16 J. Drommel G
3 J. Teze D
5 André Ramalho D
22 J. Branthwaite D
30 P. van Aanholt D
27 J. Bakayoko M
23 J. Veerman M
6 I. Sangaré M
7 X. Simons M
9 L. de Jong F
20 G. Til F
Bench (12)
21 A. El Ghazi
11 T. Hazard
29 P. Mwene
15 É. Gutiérrez
10 Fábio Silva
53 J. Seelt
18 O. Boscagli
42 F. Fofana
24 B. Waterman
1 W. Benítez
48 F. Leysen
33 Sávio

Coach: R. van Nistelrooij

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Higler · 133 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.