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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

Ajax

S U S S U

3–1

Full-time

Groningen

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Groningen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/7 matches

Win Ø 45%

60%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

40%

57%

Both score Ø 56%

40%

71%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,32 xG 1,30

63% Possession 37%

17 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

8 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 8. · Groningen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+22	+12.1	24
2	Utrecht	7	6	1	0	+6	-0.5	19
3	Twente	8	4	2	2	+7	+9.2	14
4	Feyenoord	7	3	4	0	+7	+6.1	13
5	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.3	13
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	1	3	+0	+7.5	13
7	Willem II	8	3	2	3	+2	-4.3	11
8	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.5	10
9	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	4	2	+0	-0.9	10
10	Groningen	7	2	3	2	+2	-3.6	9
11	Heracles	8	2	3	3	-6	-4.6	9
12	NAC Breda	8	3	0	5	-8	-6.5	9
13	Heerenveen	7	2	2	3	+1	+1.1	8
14	Zwolle	8	2	2	4	-3	-6.0	8
15	Nijmegen	8	2	1	5	-2	-4.6	7
16	For Sittard	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.3	7
17	Almere City	8	0	2	6	-17	-4.0	2
18	Waalwijk	8	0	0	8	-17	-9.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Utrecht	4	4	0	0	+4	+2.0	12
3	NAC Breda	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.4	9
4	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+5	+5.2	8
5	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
6	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+3	+6.8	7
7	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
8	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
9	Willem II	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.2	6
10	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
11	Groningen	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.8	5
12	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
13	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
14	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.0	3
16	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
17	Almere City	5	0	1	4	-13	-0.9	1
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+6.6	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
3	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.5	7
4	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
5	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+2.3	6
6	Twente	4	2	0	2	+4	+1.2	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
8	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
9	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
10	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
11	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.3	4
12	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-5	-5.4	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	0	3	-1	-4.0	3
14	Zwolle	4	0	2	2	-2	-5.9	2
15	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
16	Heerenveen	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.2	0
17	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-10	-5.3	0
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.