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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Ajax

T U T S T

7–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

2,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

78%

33%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,9

3,4

Scored

3,0

1,2

Conceded

0,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

74% Possession 26%

29 Shots 7

20 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 12

13 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 4. · Excelsior 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	8	0	2	+21	24
2	Feyenoord	10	7	2	1	+15	23
3	AZ Alkmaar	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+19	22
5	Twente	9	6	1	2	+12	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	2	3	+5	17
7	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	+6	14
8	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-6	12
9	Heerenveen	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	For Sittard	10	3	2	5	-5	11
11	Nijmegen	10	1	7	2	+0	10
12	Excelsior	9	3	1	5	-9	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	3	5	-5	9
14	Cambuur	10	2	2	6	-9	8
15	Vitesse	10	2	2	6	-10	8
16	Groningen	10	2	2	6	-12	8
17	FC Emmen	10	1	3	6	-14	6
18	Volendam	10	1	3	6	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	15
2	Twente	5	5	0	0	+14	15
3	Sparta Rotterdam	6	4	0	2	+7	12
4	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+14	10
5	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+9	10
6	Waalwijk	5	2	2	1	+6	8
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	For Sittard	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	FC Emmen	5	1	3	1	-2	6
10	Excelsior	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Utrecht	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Nijmegen	5	0	4	1	-1	4
15	Groningen	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Cambuur	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Volendam	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Vitesse	5	0	2	3	-8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	PSV Eindhoven	5	3	0	2	+5	9
5	Utrecht	5	2	1	2	-4	7
6	Nijmegen	5	1	3	1	+1	6
7	Waalwijk	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Heerenveen	5	1	3	1	-1	6
9	Vitesse	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Cambuur	5	1	2	2	-5	5
12	Go Ahead Eagles	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Twente	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Excelsior	5	1	1	3	-6	4
16	Groningen	5	1	1	3	-8	4
17	Volendam	6	0	3	3	-12	3
18	FC Emmen	5	0	0	5	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.