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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Excelsior

T S U U T

1–2

Full-time

Ajax

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 53%

33%

73%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

67%

79%

Both score Ø 63%

64%

61%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,6

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

16 Shots 23

5 Shots on target 12

4 Blocked shots 5

8 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 11

0 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 10. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	33	26	4	3	+48	82
2	Ajax	33	24	4	5	+55	76
3	AZ Alkmaar	33	21	5	7	+28	68
4	Feyenoord	33	19	6	8	+36	63
5	Heerenveen	31	12	9	10	-2	45
6	Vitesse	29	12	8	9	+19	44
7	Zwolle	33	12	8	13	-6	44
8	Utrecht	29	11	10	8	-2	43
9	Den Haag	31	11	8	12	-8	41
10	Excelsior	33	11	7	15	-14	40
11	Heracles	33	10	9	14	-17	39
12	Groningen	33	8	13	12	+0	37
13	Willem II	33	10	6	17	-13	36
14	VVV Venlo	33	7	13	13	-18	34
15	NAC Breda	33	9	6	18	-16	33
16	Roda	33	8	6	19	-26	30
17	Sparta Rotterdam	33	7	6	20	-38	27
18	Twente	33	5	8	20	-26	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	1	0	+35	46
2	Ajax	17	14	1	2	+33	43
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+20	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	10	2	4	+11	32
5	Heracles	17	9	4	4	+4	31
6	Groningen	17	7	7	3	+11	28
7	Zwolle	17	8	4	5	+7	28
8	Utrecht	14	6	7	1	+4	25
9	Vitesse	15	6	5	4	+13	23
10	Den Haag	16	6	4	6	-2	22
11	Heerenveen	15	6	4	5	-2	22
12	NAC Breda	17	7	1	9	-5	22
13	Willem II	16	6	3	7	+2	21
14	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-12	20
15	Twente	16	4	5	7	-6	17
16	Roda	16	4	4	8	-12	16
17	VVV Venlo	17	3	6	8	-10	15
18	Excelsior	16	3	5	8	-7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	17	11	3	3	+17	36
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	11	3	3	+13	36
3	Ajax	16	10	3	3	+22	33
4	Feyenoord	16	8	3	5	+16	27
5	Excelsior	17	8	2	7	-7	26
6	Heerenveen	16	6	5	5	+0	23
7	Vitesse	14	6	3	5	+6	21
8	Den Haag	15	5	4	6	-6	19
9	VVV Venlo	16	4	7	5	-8	19
10	Utrecht	15	5	3	7	-6	18
11	Zwolle	16	4	4	8	-13	16
12	Willem II	17	4	3	10	-15	15
13	Roda	17	4	2	11	-14	14
14	NAC Breda	16	2	5	9	-11	11
15	Groningen	16	1	6	9	-11	9
16	Heracles	16	1	5	10	-21	8
17	Sparta Rotterdam	17	1	4	12	-26	7
18	Twente	17	1	3	13	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.