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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Excelsior

S T S T T

1–7

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

2,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,2

This season — Eredivisie · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 55%

27%

82%

Points per game

1,1

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

55%

64%

Both score Ø 32%

55%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

2,1

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+2,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

37% Possession 63%

13 Shots 29

3 Shots on target 12

2 Blocked shots 9

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 15

0 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 13. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	12	0	0	+38	36
2	Ajax	11	9	1	1	+26	28
3	Feyenoord	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	Heracles	11	6	2	3	+3	20
5	VVV Venlo	11	5	3	3	+2	18
6	Utrecht	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	3	4	+3	15
8	Heerenveen	12	3	5	4	-3	14
9	For Sittard	12	3	4	5	-1	13
10	Willem II	12	3	4	5	-3	13
11	FC Emmen	12	3	4	5	-12	13
12	Vitesse	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Excelsior	11	3	3	5	-7	12
14	Den Haag	11	3	3	5	-10	12
15	Zwolle	12	3	2	7	-9	11
16	Groningen	11	3	1	7	-7	10
17	De Graafschap	12	3	1	8	-14	10
18	NAC Breda	12	2	2	8	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+23	18
2	Ajax	6	5	1	0	+18	16
3	Heracles	5	5	0	0	+11	15
4	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	15
5	Utrecht	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	VVV Venlo	5	3	1	1	+5	10
7	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	3	1	+5	9
8	De Graafschap	7	3	0	4	-4	9
9	For Sittard	6	2	2	2	+2	8
10	Excelsior	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	NAC Breda	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Den Haag	5	2	1	2	-5	7
14	FC Emmen	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Willem II	5	1	2	2	+3	5
16	Zwolle	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Groningen	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Heerenveen	6	0	3	3	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+15	18
2	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+8	12
3	Heerenveen	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	VVV Venlo	6	2	2	2	-3	8
5	Willem II	7	2	2	3	-6	8
6	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-6	7
7	FC Emmen	6	2	1	3	-10	7
8	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Groningen	5	2	0	3	-4	6
10	Vitesse	6	1	2	3	-2	5
11	For Sittard	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Feyenoord	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Utrecht	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Den Haag	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Heracles	6	1	2	3	-8	5
16	Excelsior	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	-10	1
18	NAC Breda	6	0	1	5	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.