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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Ajax
S S T T U
1–6
Full-time
Napoli
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,7
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
2,7
2,5
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,8
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
4,0
Scored
2,5
3,5
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

44% Possession 56%
8 Shots 26
2 Shots on target 13
3 Blocked shots 5
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 1
21 Free kicks against 4
4 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Ajax Napoli
1–0 M. Kudus
K. Taylor
9′
18′
G. Raspadori 1–1
M. Olivera
21′
🟨 Giacomo Raspadori
Jurriën Timber 🟨
30′
33′
G. Di Lorenzo 1–2
K. Kvaratskhelia
Dušan Tadić 🟨
38′
45′
P. Zieliński 1–3
A. Zambo Anguissa
Half-time 1–3
46′
🔁 T. Ndombélé
↦ P. Zieliński
47′
G. Raspadori 1–4
A. Zambo Anguissa
63′
K. Kvaratskhelia 1–5
G. Raspadori
64′
🔁 G. Simeone
↦ G. Raspadori
64′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
B. Brobbey 🔁
↦ S. Berghuis
72′
D. Klaassen 🔁
↦ K. Taylor
72′
Dušan Tadić 🟨
73′
Dušan Tadić 🟥
73′
F. Grillitsch 🔁
↦ J. Timber
80′
80′
🔁 G. Gaetano
↦ S. Lobotka
81′
G. Simeone 1–6
T. Ndombélé
Y. Baas 🔁
↦ D. Rensch
84′
84′
🔁 A. Zanoli
↦ G. Di Lorenzo
Mohammed Kudus 🟨
91′
Full-time 1–6

Line-ups

Ajax

4-2-3-1
22 R. Pasveer G
15 D. Rensch D
2 J. Timber D
3 C. Bassey D
17 D. Blind D
4 E. Álvarez M
8 K. Taylor M
10 D. Tadić M
23 S. Berghuis M
7 S. Bergwijn M
20 M. Kudus F
Bench (12)
9 B. Brobbey
6 D. Klaassen
21 F. Grillitsch
25 Y. Baas
16 J. Gorter
11 L. Ocampos
5 O. Wijndal
35 Francisco Conceição
29 L. Magallán
18 L. Lucca
26 Y. Regeer
1 M. Stekelenburg

Coach: A. Schreuder

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 A. Rrahmani D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
17 M. Olivera D
99 A. Zambo Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
11 H. Lozano F
81 G. Raspadori F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (12)
91 T. Ndombélé
18 G. Simeone
7 E. Elmas
70 G. Gaetano
59 A. Zanoli
6 Mário Rui
55 L. Østigård
23 A. Zerbin
16 H. Idasiak
5 Juan Jesus
30 S. Sirigu
21 M. Politano

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.