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Eredivisie

Referee: Pol van Boekel

Ajax

S T S S S

6–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

4,0

1,7

Scored

3,0

0,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 52%

79%

24%

Points per game

2,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

79%

59%

Both score Ø 47%

41%

52%

Average goals

4,3

3,3

Scored

3,4

1,1

Conceded

0,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

60% Possession 40%

22 Shots 9

13 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Excelsior 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	29	23	2	4	+74	71
2	PSV Eindhoven	29	22	5	2	+65	71
3	Feyenoord	29	16	5	8	+27	53
4	AZ Alkmaar	29	15	7	7	+23	52
5	Heracles	27	14	3	10	+3	45
6	Utrecht	26	11	7	8	+6	40
7	Willem II	29	12	4	13	-8	40
8	Groningen	27	11	5	11	+1	38
9	Vitesse	26	9	10	7	+7	37
10	Heerenveen	29	9	9	11	-7	36
11	Zwolle	29	10	5	14	-7	35
12	Den Haag	29	8	9	12	-12	33
13	VVV Venlo	29	9	6	14	-19	33
14	For Sittard	29	8	6	15	-24	30
15	FC Emmen	30	7	8	15	-34	29
16	De Graafschap	29	7	5	17	-26	26
17	Excelsior	29	7	5	17	-30	26
18	NAC Breda	30	5	7	18	-39	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	13	1	0	+46	40
2	Ajax	14	12	2	0	+48	38
3	Feyenoord	14	12	0	2	+27	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	3	2	+19	30
5	Heracles	14	10	0	4	+14	30
6	Groningen	14	8	1	5	+7	25
7	Vitesse	13	6	6	1	+7	24
8	Utrecht	13	6	4	3	+9	22
9	For Sittard	14	6	4	4	+6	22
10	VVV Venlo	15	6	3	6	-1	21
11	Den Haag	15	5	4	6	-5	19
12	Zwolle	15	5	3	7	+1	18
13	De Graafschap	15	5	3	7	-1	18
14	Excelsior	15	5	3	7	-11	18
15	Willem II	14	5	2	7	-5	17
16	NAC Breda	15	4	5	6	-8	17
17	Heerenveen	14	3	5	6	-9	14
18	FC Emmen	15	3	5	7	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	11	0	4	+26	33
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	9	4	2	+19	31
3	Willem II	15	7	2	6	-3	23
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	4	5	+4	22
5	Heerenveen	15	6	4	5	+2	22
6	Utrecht	13	5	3	5	-3	18
7	Feyenoord	15	4	5	6	+0	17
8	Zwolle	14	5	2	7	-8	17
9	Heracles	13	4	3	6	-11	15
10	FC Emmen	15	4	3	8	-23	15
11	Den Haag	14	3	5	6	-7	14
12	Vitesse	13	3	4	6	+0	13
13	Groningen	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	VVV Venlo	14	3	3	8	-18	12
15	Excelsior	14	2	2	10	-19	8
16	De Graafschap	14	2	2	10	-25	8
17	For Sittard	15	2	2	11	-30	8
18	NAC Breda	15	1	2	12	-31	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.