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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Aston Villa

T U S U U

0–2

Full-time

Chelsea

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 43%

22%

63%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

33%

88%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 16. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	8	0	1	+13	24
2	Man City	9	7	2	0	+24	23
3	Tottenham	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+3	16
5	Man United	8	5	0	3	-2	15
6	Newcastle	9	3	5	1	+8	14
7	Brighton	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Brentford	10	3	4	3	+1	13
9	Bournemouth	10	3	4	3	-12	13
10	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
11	Liverpool	8	2	4	2	+8	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Everton	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Leeds	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-8	9
18	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-9	7
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-9	5
20	Nott'm Forest	10	1	2	7	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+19	15
2	Tottenham	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+7	15
4	Brentford	5	3	1	1	+6	10
5	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Newcastle	5	2	3	0	+6	9
7	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+10	8
8	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+4	8
9	Bournemouth	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Fulham	5	2	2	1	-1	8
11	Wolves	5	2	2	1	-1	8
12	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+3	7
13	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+1	7
14	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Man United	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	Leicester	5	1	2	2	+2	5
18	Everton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+6	9
2	Man United	5	3	0	2	-4	9
3	Man City	4	2	2	0	+5	8
4	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Chelsea	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+2	5
8	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
9	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-12	5
10	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-3	4
11	Crystal Palace	4	0	3	1	-2	3
12	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
14	Southampton	5	1	0	4	-8	3
15	Liverpool	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Aston Villa	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Leeds	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-7	1
19	Nott'm Forest	5	0	1	4	-13	1
20	Leicester	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.