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Ligue 1
Referee: C Turpin
Paris SG
S S U U U
1–0
Full-time
Marseille
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 75%
80%
70%
Points per game
2,6
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,8
2,0
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
23 Shots 18
8 Shots on target 7
7 Blocked shots 5
7 Goalkeeper saves 8
7 Corners 6
1 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Marseille 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 10 8 2 0 +23 26
2 Lorient 11 8 2 1 +7 26
3 Lens 11 7 3 1 +10 24
4 Marseille 10 7 2 1 +13 23
5 Rennes 11 6 3 2 +12 21
6 Monaco 11 6 3 2 +6 21
7 Lille 11 6 1 4 +3 19
8 Clermont 11 5 2 4 -1 17
9 Toulouse 11 4 3 4 -1 15
10 Lyon 11 4 2 5 +4 14
11 Montpellier 11 4 0 7 -1 12
12 Troyes 11 3 3 5 -3 12
13 Nice 11 3 3 5 -4 12
14 Nantes 11 2 4 5 -6 10
15 Reims 11 1 6 4 -7 9
16 Auxerre 11 2 3 6 -12 9
17 Strasbourg 11 1 5 5 -7 8
18 Ajaccio 11 2 2 7 -8 8
19 Angers 11 2 2 7 -14 8
20 Brest 11 1 3 7 -14 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paris SG Marseille
N. Mukiele 🔁
↦ Danilo Pereira
25′
44′
🔁 S. Gigot
↦ E. Bailly
Half-time 0–0
47′
🟨 Amine Harit
1–0 Neymar
K. Mbappé
47′
70′
🔁 I. Kaboré
↦ Nuno Tavares
71′
🔁 C. Ünder
↦ A. Harit
72′
🟥 Samuel Gigot
Marquinhos 🟨
74′
Pablo Sarabia 🔁
↦ L. Messi
79′
79′
🔁 P. Gueye
↦ J. Veretout
79′
🔁 B. Dieng
↦ A. Sánchez
Carlos Soler 🔁
↦ Neymar
88′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-1-2
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
15 Danilo Pereira D
14 Juan Bernat D
8 Fabián Ruiz M
6 M. Verratti M
17 Vitinha M
10 Neymar M
30 L. Messi F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
26 N. Mukiele
19 Pablo Sarabia
28 Carlos Soler
44 H. Ekitike
31 E. Bitshiabu
33 W. Zaïre-Emery
1 K. Navas
35 Ismaël Gharbi
18 Renato Sanches

Coach: C. Galtier

Marseille

3-4-2-1
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
3 E. Bailly D
5 L. Balerdi D
7 J. Clauss M
21 V. Rongier M
27 J. Veretout M
30 Nuno Tavares M
6 M. Guendouzi F
77 A. Harit F
70 A. Sánchez F
Bench (9)
4 S. Gigot
29 I. Kaboré
17 C. Ünder
22 P. Gueye
12 B. Dieng
11 L. Suárez
8 Gerson
10 D. Payet
36 Rubén Blanco

Coach: I. Tudor

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,34
U
5,57
B
8,40
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,45
U2,5 ✓
2,71
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.