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Eredivisie

Referee: Paulus van Boekel

Excelsior

U T T U S

1–1

Full-time

Ajax

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,8

This season — Eredivisie · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 46%

19%

73%

Points per game

0,9

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

58%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

65%

42%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 20

1 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 10

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	27	22	3	2	+51	69
2	Ajax	26	19	5	2	+39	62
3	PSV Eindhoven	27	18	7	2	+34	61
4	Twente	27	11	8	8	+3	41
5	Utrecht	24	11	7	6	+8	40
6	Vitesse	27	11	6	10	+8	39
7	Heerenveen	25	10	6	9	+10	36
8	AZ Alkmaar	24	8	11	5	+4	35
9	Willem II	27	8	9	10	-5	33
10	Heracles	27	8	7	12	-9	31
11	Sparta Rotterdam	27	7	7	13	-13	28
12	Nijmegen	27	7	7	13	-19	28
13	Zwolle	26	7	6	13	-22	27
14	Groningen	26	5	11	10	-6	26
15	Excelsior	26	5	8	13	-18	23
16	Roda	27	4	11	12	-22	23
17	Den Haag	26	6	4	16	-23	22
18	Go Ahead Eagles	26	5	5	16	-20	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	14	12	2	0	+33	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Ajax	13	10	2	1	+24	32
4	Twente	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Heerenveen	13	6	4	3	+8	22
6	Heracles	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Vitesse	13	6	2	5	+6	20
8	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	4	4	+3	19
9	Nijmegen	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Utrecht	11	5	3	3	+4	18
11	Willem II	14	4	5	5	-4	17
12	AZ Alkmaar	12	3	7	2	+2	16
13	Excelsior	13	4	4	5	+0	16
14	Zwolle	13	4	3	6	-9	15
15	Roda	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Den Haag	13	4	2	7	-6	14
17	Groningen	13	2	7	4	-7	13
18	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	1	8	-7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	13	10	1	2	+18	31
2	Ajax	13	9	3	1	+15	30
3	PSV Eindhoven	13	8	4	1	+17	28
4	Utrecht	13	6	4	3	+4	22
5	Vitesse	14	5	4	5	+2	19
6	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Twente	14	4	5	5	-3	17
8	Willem II	13	4	4	5	-1	16
9	Heerenveen	12	4	2	6	+2	14
10	Groningen	13	3	4	6	+1	13
11	Zwolle	13	3	3	7	-13	12
12	Heracles	14	2	4	8	-15	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	14	2	3	9	-16	9
14	Roda	13	1	6	6	-17	9
15	Nijmegen	13	2	3	8	-18	9
16	Den Haag	13	2	2	9	-17	8
17	Go Ahead Eagles	13	1	4	8	-13	7
18	Excelsior	13	1	4	8	-18	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.