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Eredivisie
Referee: B Nijhuis
AZ Alkmaar
U S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Ajax
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
0,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+2,5
This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
1,8
3,5
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

42% Possession 58%
13 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
5 Free kicks against 8
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Ajax 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 7 6 0 1 +18 18
2 Ajax 6 6 0 0 +18 18
3 Feyenoord 7 5 1 1 +11 16
4 AZ Alkmaar 6 4 2 0 +7 14
5 Twente 6 4 1 1 +8 13
6 Sparta Rotterdam 7 3 1 3 +1 10
7 Waalwijk 7 2 3 2 +5 9
8 Heerenveen 6 2 3 1 +0 9
9 Utrecht 7 2 3 2 -1 9
10 Excelsior 7 3 0 4 -8 9
11 Nijmegen 7 1 5 1 +2 8
12 Groningen 7 2 2 3 -5 8
13 Go Ahead Eagles 7 2 0 5 -5 6
14 Vitesse 7 1 2 4 -9 5
15 Volendam 7 1 2 4 -13 5
16 For Sittard 7 1 1 5 -8 4
17 Cambuur 7 1 1 5 -9 4
18 FC Emmen 7 1 1 5 -12 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,55
U
4,17
B
1,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,58
U2,5
2,33
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Nijhuis · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.