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Serie A
Referee: F Maresca
Monza
T T T T U
1–0
Full-time
Juventus
S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Juventus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
0,5
1,3
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+0,0
This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,2
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
2,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%
17 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 3
6 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Monza 20. · Juventus 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Udinese 7 5 1 1 +8 16
2 Napoli 6 4 2 0 +9 14
3 Atalanta 6 4 2 0 +7 14
4 Milan 6 4 2 0 +6 14
5 Roma 6 4 1 1 +2 13
6 Inter 7 4 0 3 +2 12
7 Lazio 6 3 2 1 +4 11
8 Juventus 6 2 4 0 +5 10
9 Torino 7 3 1 3 -1 10
10 Sassuolo 7 2 3 2 -3 9
11 Spezia 7 2 2 3 -4 8
12 Salernitana 7 1 4 2 +2 7
13 Empoli 7 1 4 2 -1 7
14 Fiorentina 6 1 3 2 -1 6
15 Lecce 7 1 3 3 -2 6
16 Bologna 7 1 3 3 -3 6
17 Verona 6 1 2 3 -5 5
18 Cremonese 6 0 2 4 -5 2
19 Sampdoria 7 0 2 5 -9 2
20 Monza 6 0 1 5 -11 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Monza Juventus
22′
🟨 Bremer
40′
🟥 Ángel Di María
Half-time 0–0
A. Barberis 🔁
↦ S. Sensi
54′
C. Gytkjær 🔁
↦ Dany Mota
55′
L. Caldirola 🔁
↦ Marlon
55′
A. Colpani 🔁
↦ G. Caprari
69′
1–0 C. Gytkjær
P. Ciurria
74′
78′
🔁 M. Kean
↦ F. Kostić
S. Birindelli 🔁
↦ Carlos Augusto
85′
86′
🔁 M. Soulé
↦ M. De Sciglio
86′
🔁 N. Fagioli
↦ F. Miretti
Patrick Ciurria 🟨
89′
Nicolò Rovella 🟨
91′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Monza

3-4-2-1
16 M. Di Gregorio G
4 Marlon D
3 Pablo Marí D
55 A. Izzo D
84 P. Ciurria M
6 N. Rovella M
12 S. Sensi M
30 Carlos Augusto M
32 M. Pessina F
17 G. Caprari F
47 Dany Mota F
Bench (15)
8 A. Barberis
9 C. Gytkjær
5 L. Caldirola
28 A. Colpani
19 S. Birindelli
34 L. Marrone
79 S. Molina
26 V. Antov
89 A. Cragno
38 W. Bondo
22 F. Ranocchia
44 A. Carboni
7 José Machín
91 A. Sorrentino
10 M. Valoti

Coach: R. Palladino

Juventus

4-3-3
36 M. Perin G
2 M. De Sciglio D
15 F. Gatti D
3 Bremer D
6 Danilo D
8 W. McKennie M
32 L. Paredes M
20 F. Miretti M
22 Á. Di María F
9 D. Vlahović F
17 F. Kostić F
Bench (10)
18 M. Kean
30 M. Soulé
44 N. Fagioli
24 D. Rugani
23 C. Pinsoglio
1 W. Szczęsny
42 T. Barbieri
19 L. Bonucci
43 S. Iling-Junior
45 E. Barrenechea

Coach: M. Allegri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,41
U
3,63
B
1,84
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,94
U2,5 ✓
1,87
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Maresca · 123 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.